I am just
back from the American Economic Association/Allied Social Sciences meetings in
Boston. It was a hit-and-run affair for me: I could go just for my session, and then back to New
York. Nine hours in train in order to speak for 15 minutes (36 to 1 ratio for
the lovers of inequality). The panel on “Inequality: challenge of the
century?” was organized by Jamie Galbraith, the author (among other books) of “Inequality
and Instability”. The panelists were Olivier Giovannoni (Bard College),
Stephen Rose (Georgetown), Joe Stiglitz and I.
I would like to share a few very fresh reflections on Stiglitz’s
presentation. It followed very much the lines of the presentation of his new very long paper (practically
several papers) on inequality (see here,
and which I discussed in a previous
blog)--but there were some new points.
1) Economic
theories, says Stiglitz, dealing with inequality fall into two groups. First, those that are based on marginal productivity
and neoclassical production function where the earnings of the factors of
production are supposed to be determined impersonally by the market, or where
returns to capital are explained by “abstinence” as in the case of Nassau
Senior (explicitly mentioned by Stiglitz), or “waiting” (as in the case of
Marshall). The second group of theories regards
incomes as determined largely by exploitation, political or economic power, rent-seeking,
cronyism, imperfect information, monopolies. Stiglitz clearly saw himself as belonging
to the latter group.
But, I
thought, his work combines both. His original 1967 paper,
on which Stiglitz is drawing in his new paper on the long-run wealth
distribution is fully neoclassical, with an equilibrium wealth distribution, determined
by the differences in saving rates and population growth. But in his other work
(including in “Price
of Inequality”) Stiglitz’s emphasis is on the second strand of literature. So,
while his classification is useful, I thought that the real decision is whether
one subscribes 100% to the marginal productivity theory (that is, all incomes
are determined by the market) in which case there is little to say about
distribution of income as such, or we accept that it is only, say 80% or 50% or
20% of all incomes that are thus determined. Perhaps one could argue that today
in the US, only 50% of all incomes are determined by the market and that it
used to be 80%.
Only Marx’s
theory of exploitation among those listed by Stiglitz would be different, because
capital earnings do not appear there as unfair, or due to some departure from a
“normal” functioning of capitalism, as in rent-seeking, but are indeed part of
the normal functioning of capitalism, moreover its very definition.
2) Stiglitz
proposed an interesting view of drivers of inequality in today’s US. The
principal role belongs to finance (where he agrees with Galbraith) which made credits
more easily available which in turn led to over-investment in housing, and to
the increase in the wealth/GDP ratio, discussed by Piketty. But that increase while
real was not conducive to greater productivity because what increased was value
of land, not the physical quantity of productive capital. Banks, instead of lending to
companies to invest in new capital, lent to the public which spent the money on
housing and unproductive assets. Stiglitz here rejoins, with some twists, Kumhoff and Rancière,
and Rajan,
and even (if I may say so) myself who wrote about that in March 2009.
But Stiglitz presents it as a solution to the “Piketty puzzle”: how come that the
wealth/income ratio went up but the marginal product of capital did not go down and, most importantly, wages did not increase.
3) An important
implication, if you hold that a significant number of incomes are determined by
the “second” theories (exploitation and market failure) is that there is no
trade-off between inequality and growth.
Lower top incomes reduce inequality and increase growth.
4) Finally, Stiglitz
thought that the sources of inequality in the United States today are so profound
that small tinkering with the minimum wage, more affordable education etc. will
not go to the root of the problem. He thought that more radical approaches, possibly
cap on highest incomes, significantly increased tax rates etc. were necessary.
But, to the best of my recollection, he was not very specific about the actual “more
radical” measures.
This is all
that I had to say about Stiglitz’s presentation. One aspect in the discussions
on inequality that I find strangely
absent is broader ownership of capital. If one of the drivers of inequality are capital
incomes (and “allied” incomes like those of top management), this is because
they are heavily concentrated. “Deconcentration” of capital incomes, that is much
wider ownership, particularly of equities, is then a solution. But it is seldom mentioned.
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