tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15950008785681379072024-03-13T23:16:57.705-07:00globalinequalityBranko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.comBlogger358125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-90274750096139746222024-02-24T08:32:00.000-08:002024-02-24T08:32:39.062-08:00Before the police arrives: Bookstores on Saturdays<p> <span> </span><span> </span><span> <span style="font-size: x-large;"> </span></span><span style="font-size: x-large;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">I</span></span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> always loved Saturdays. When I was
a college student, quite improbably my parents decided that I would be a “technical
executor” of our family’s monthly budget. My family was part of the red bourgeoisie
and we had enough, and probably more than enough,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>for a comfortable life, the life that today’s
middle classes might find<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>constrained and
limited in income but attractive because of its security. What it meant was an
apartment of 67 square meters, two bedrooms, enough money to go on a modest vacation
once per year, very little money to travel abroad (because prices in Western Europe
were a multiple of these in Yugoslavia, and one night in a hotel would cost a half
of one’s salary), and enough to go to a restaurant once in a fortnight.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">But enough –and this is key for the story—to
allocate <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>every month a small amount for
the purchase of books. I argued for it and won easily because my father loved
reading. And he was entirely indifferent to money, that is, he would be equally
happy if we had one-half of what we had, so long as there was enough to eat, <i>drink</i>
and read. The monthly amount dedicated to books would be nicely stashed in an envelope,
with the writing on the top “Knjige” (“Books”) and I would “execute” the
purchase. I was allowed to buy whatever I wanted. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Having an earmarked fixed amount, I
wanted to maximize pleasure from it. That meant that, if I had money to buy two
or three books every month, I would go out every Saturday with an express intention
to buy only one book. Never two. For if I bought two books on this Saturday,
there will be no money to buy a book next Saturday. (I remember how many years
later, In a bookstore in Georgetown, in Washington, I saw for the first time a
person buying books by piling them in a cart the way one buys potatoes or bananas
in a supermarket. That struck me as entirely disrespectful of writers. I would not
like my books to be bought in such a way.)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">I was lucky to have been young
(assuming that I would be always growing up in the Balkans) at that time because
that part of peripheral Europe was then living through what was its most intellectually
interesting time—ever. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thanks to Marxism
it had direct connection to the modern Western intellectual thought; in
addition, that very Marxism was <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>technically
applied in the country which made writers from that country interesting in the eyes
of the intellectual West (the West was always the paragon) as well as of the
rest of the world. And Yugoslavia, indeed, through its Praxis school, produced
a series of excellent political philosophers and Marxist scholars.* Freedom from Stalinist constraint,
or even an official encouragement to publish as much <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>anti-Stalinist, but Marxist and Leninist, literature,
added to the excitement. You could read everything about the “deformations” in
the Soviet Union except for Trotsky. He remained, never officially spoken of,
but unacceptable. Other Trotskyists were published (Antonov-Ovseyenko, Victor
Serge, Isaac Deutscher), but not the Master himself, even in his purely literary or journalistic
writings.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Not least importantly, these were the
1970s when Yugoslavia borrowed heavily from the West, foreign<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>exchange was plentiful, and that made imports
of English-printed books available to whoever was interested in intellectual or
political topics, and read English. When I recently reread my old books as I
was writing <i>Visions of Inequality</i> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I was not surprised that many of them were
bought in Belgrade in the mid-seventies, as tiny pencil-written notes, showing
the price in dinars, inside the cover-page attest (“15,70 dinars” in pencil and
a strong curling “,” which, I would wager, was in a woman’s handwriting). </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Thus, on Saturdays, armed also by the
book reviews that I would have read the week or month before, I would go from
one bookstore to another looking at what may be the best book to buy. I would
weigh the advantages and disadvantages of this or that writer, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the likelihood that I would prefer to read fiction
to nonfiction—but never include in that weighting scheme my college interests. Studying
to get a grade was always an entirely different matter, not at the slightest
entering my decisions about what to read. I still believe this approach is
good.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">I read quite a lot about the Stalinist
period. In high-school in Belgium I discovered Roy and Zhores Medvedev. I still
love their books. In many ways, I think they are the most unbiased witnesses,
and students of Stalinism. My French teacher in Belgium introduced me to
William Shirer.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After reading him, I
branched out to the rest of literature on Nazism and Europe in the 1930s.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Solzhenitsyn was widely published in Yugoslavia
(although I think that his “Gulag Archipelago” was not immediately published
because of his attacks on Lenin, nor was his “Lenin in Zurich”). The rest
however was. A Yugoslav communist who was imprisoned for twenty years in the
Gulag also published his memoirs around the same time: Karlo Stajner: </span><a href="https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/2542652"><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">7,000 dana u Sibiru</span></i></a><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> (“7,000 days in Siberia”). I still
have his book. I went to his book talk one cold winter night in Belgrade. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The publication of Leszek Kolakowski’s
</span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Main-Currents-Marxism-Founders-Breakdown/dp/0393329437"><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Main Currents of Marxism</span></i></a><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> provoked, as I learned from the
literary weekly and a friend, quite a commotion. Eventually, it was published with
a lengthy preface by one of the Party ideologues drawing a distinction between
Lenin and Stalin and criticizing Kolakowski for not doing so sufficiently. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The books one could not buy were by
Djilas. The first Djilas’s book that I read were all in English, and to this
day I never read him in the original. He was published in Serbian only when the
“populist-nationalist” government of Slobodan Milosevic came to power. But by
then nobody cared about Djilas.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The new
class had disappeared.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">I was entirely indifferent to the nationalist
literature <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that started to flourish
under the permissive, and relatively rich, atmosphere of the late 1970s. It
might have been a wrong decision, because that literature (most of it, I
thought then and now, composed of elementary thinking and counter-truths)
became much more influential in the Balkans and all over Eastern Europe. It probably
is still today, reawakened by the war between Ukraine and Russia. I saw specimens
of such nonsensical literature in every East European country I travelled to after
it “acceded” to democracy.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">On my travels to England, I loved to
go to the enchanting London bookstores. There would be—extraordinarily—several floors
of books. In 1973,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I saw in the Foyles
bookstore exposed all over the place and very prominently in the windows, the
first English translation of <i>Grundriss</i>e (done beautifully by Martin
Nicolaus). I did not know about the existence of </span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Grundrisse-Foundations-Critique-Political-Classics/dp/0140445757/ref=sr_1_1?crid=SW8COXG4VDIV&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.iDPBOcIrKnUx9HpaLAKVmaqgBZ-M-_DQm7EO0Ix-tuIoKlkQ6e_ZKQNQHIFvjdU6ae7_4v-2Bq5mOjq2axC0XJ267vmy_9NkZrcnvtBfVgFfbh6cyhsJ4SuqSXgaqnxmU-TAMygxw5piMUSJ_mRtTzOONEh32X9KrxZwCJ_ma6z035ZIzZxXiMMOBS6J8nnyVg-DTFPCDblC4H_InLtfkwSIotWMVlPO2kVyUwhUG7g.66z_nQZGG9g3UdwiKLQLG4QG3_wCMlY522Iaw7v3_n4&dib_tag=se&keywords=grundrisse&qid=1708572303&s=books&sprefix=grundrisse%2Cstripbooks%2C310&sr=1-1"><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Grundrisse</span></i></a><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> at all. I was totally shocked to see
Marx’s book so openly displayed in the heart of the capitalist world. I had
already read him, and I thought that whoever had read him would immediately
have to abandon the allegiance to capitalism. I was thus half-expecting the
police to show up at the Foyles, and if not seize all<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the books, at least put them back on the
shelves. But that did not happen. In fact I freely bought my copy of <i>Grundrisse</i>,
and almost half a century later when writing <i>Visions of Inequality</i>, I went
over my notes, the unstuck and falling out yellowed pages, and remembered the
urgency with which I then grabbed <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the
book—before the police arrives. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">* </span><span style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background-color: white; color: #404040; display: inline !important; float: none; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, system-ui, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-variant-ligatures: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: 2; text-align: left; text-decoration-color: initial; text-decoration-style: initial; text-decoration-thickness: initial; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 2; word-spacing: 0px;">Just to make it less abstract, I will mention only a few who come to mind and whose books I have read then: Predrag Vranicki, Slobodan Stojanovic, Branko Horvat, Andrija Gams, Josip Zupanov</span></p>
Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-71274396125363157202024-02-17T20:50:00.000-08:002024-02-17T20:50:33.901-08:00Freedom to be “wrong”: the only real advantage of democracy<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Several things came together. A friend sent me <a href="https://theupheaval.substack.com/p/poland-and-the-demon-in-democracy?r=7ihg4&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post">this
post by N S Lyons</a>. Then, independently, a short <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>conversation on Twitter followed upon the
statistics showing that today’s young people get almost all their information
from the social media, while old people rely (as they did in the past) on
television. And, finally, and perhaps for this post most importantly, my own recent
thinking on the following questions: What do you see as the main gain from democracy,
as opposed to dictatorship?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Let me start with Number 3. When I thought of that, my answer
was: the freedom to read and listen to whatever I want, and to <i>say</i>
whatever I want. And I think this is all. I do not believe that democracy leads
to higher growth, less corruption, or less inequality. No evidence for any of
these things. To put it perhaps too strongly, I think democracy has no effect on
any real social phenomena, but it does allow people, on a purely personal <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>level, to feel better by accessing more diverse
information, and to express any option they have. (Note that this freedom applies
only to the political sphere,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>not to one’s
place of work which in capitalist democracies is ruled dictatorially.) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">But that definition of the advantage of democracy has recently
been under the attack by the people who think that social media lead to “fake
news”, fragmentation of public opinion, polarization of politics and all kinds
of noxious phenomena. And then they paint the picture of some fantasy-world of everybody
agreeing on all issues and espousing the liberal values in which they believe.
For me, this is precisely the undermining, or the destruction of the most (or
the only) valuable part of democracy. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">N S Lyons quotes in extenso Polish political philosopher Ryszard
Legutko who equates the modern liberal project with the communist project. And indeed
the similarities are strong. In both cases, a certain view of the world is
supposed to be based on scientific understanding of the way the world works,
and everybody who does not see it in such a way must be either “re-educated”,
or, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>if stubbornly clinging to the wrong
views, considered morally flawed. Thus the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>disagreement is with the people who are cognitively
or ethically deficient.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">I write this as somebody who believes in Enlightenment and
economic growth. But I do not believe that people will ever have the same opinion
on key matters that relate to the organization of societies. There will be always
important differences in values and backgrounds. Any attempt to impose one’s
views other than through discussion (while not seriously thinking that one will
be successful, see my post <a href="https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/on-general-futility-of-political">here</a>),
or to hold others as “morally challenged” if they do not agree, is not only
bound to fail. It is wrong. The segmentation of the space for public discourse
is not just inevitable; it is, on balance, a good thing. Between a uniformity
of opinion that is imposed through the control of the media (epitomized by television)
and plurality, or even endless multitude, of views afforded by the
echo-champers of the social media, one should choose the latter.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">We should not be afraid of polarization and disagreements.
They are much better than unanimity. Now, I am not addressing here only an enforced
unanimity that comes from having one newspaper and one TV channel (It reminds
me of an old Communist joke. “We just introduced the second channel. What is on
the second channel? A KGB official who says, “And you comrade, you do not seem
to like the first channel?”), but uniformity which comes from the current
liberal project.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">I remember that in the 1990s, a Dutch friend pointed out to
me, the heathen, the advantages of Dutch democracy and called it “vibrant” (as
opposed to enforced unanimity). But when Geert Wilders and people like him appeared
on the scene, she no longer thought it was so “vibrant”. It turns out that to
her “vibrant” meant that everybody would agree with her fundamental beliefs and
that the dispute should center on entirely peripheral matters. She represented
the pensée unique that followed upon the fall of communism when the liberal
view of the world and neoliberal economics were taken to be “normal” and “common
sense”, not an ideology.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">This was rudely challenged by Islam (which understandably on many
issues has an entirely different take), by the financial crisis of 2008,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>by China’s Sonderweg, the rise of illiberal democracies,
Trump’s presidency and then 75 million votes, Russia’s move to Euroasianism.
It clearly does not reflect today’s realities. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The expansive liberal ideology creates unnecessary conflict by
insisting that on all important political and social issues people <i>must</i> share
the same opinion, and by denigrating those who do not. Very often they dream, especially
if older, of the return of a world of three American TV channels and two weeklies
that always had the same news and the same cover page. This allegedly created a
consensus of sensible people. But it did so only because others had no say. That
world, I think fortunately, will never return because the Internet has made it impossible.
But rather than thinking that this is a bad development, we should embrace the
freedom to think whatever we want, and to say whatever we want (however strange
it might seem to others). For this is <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>probably
the only real advantage of democracy.</span></p>
Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-10418688422912409672024-02-05T08:47:00.000-08:002024-02-05T08:47:45.510-08:00To all the newspapers I loved<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">I was always in love with (in-print) newspapers. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">In the past you did not have to write “in print”. There were
no other newspapers. Writing “in print” was redundant; and incomprehensible. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">But now things are different. Today, we chatted (among older people)
and observed that no one in the New York subway reads print newspapers any longer.
People listen to podcasts, look at their smart phones, read a paper copy of a
book (yes, they do that too), watch others around them. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A friend said she has not seen anyone reading
a newspaper on a subway in years.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Neither have I. But I love the print newspapers, and this
evening, as I do two or <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>three times per
week, I went to the nearby convenience store to buy the last copy of “The Wall
Street Journal” (it costs five dollars). I like it not only for its content
(which with the exception of the editorial pages where they hire only lunatics
to write them) is excellent. I love it because the smell of the paper is the
same as what I remember from many<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>years
ago. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">When I was a kid, there were two dailies in Belgrade. One is/was
called “Politika”. It is the Serbian equivalent of the “New York Times”. It was
founded in 1904 by a rich liberal family. It has survived all regimes and has been
and remains the <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>“newspaper of record”.
It has always been close to the government, whatever that government was:
royalist,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>communist, nationalist, but never
just a mere mouthpiece. It has a unique font, designed at its foundation and not
changed since. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The other daily was “Borba” (The Struggle), the underground newspaper
of the banned Communist Party. When the said party came to power, the newspaper
became a daily and went very official. Very few people read it, but it was
always displayed in government offices.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">My family bought it on Sundays, when its heading was published
in red. Whenever I think of the Sundays of the yesteryear I see these five big letters,
all in red capital letters. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">During my high school in Belgium, I adored “Le Monde”. It was
the same: the newspaper of the thinking ruling class. Not a primitive ruling
class, not even the conservative ruling class. But the liberal, bien-pensant ruling
class. I thought it could never go wrong. When I would see a mistake or a typo,
I<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>believed I was wrong. “Le Monde” could
not be wrong. But it was—at times.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">It was nevertheless a great newspaper. My views of the Soviet
Union were influenced by its correspondent Jacques Amalric; as my views of
China were influenced by an extraordinarily gifted “Politika” journalist of the
1970s, Dragoslav Ran</span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">č</span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">i</span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ć</span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">. The fact that I still can easily remember
their names half-a-century later, while I have forgotten many others, says something
about the nearly religious <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>attention
with which I read them.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">When I came to England, I was struck by the type of paper
(like: real paper) and print used: newspapers always smudged your hands, and you
had to wash them practically every time after you read the paper. I thought
that it was some cool British custom, poorly understood by the barbarians. But rather
quickly I changed my opinion. It must have been related to the cost of printing.
Yet I do not know exactly why only in England have I experienced this. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">My first ever evening in America was at a New York airport
hotel where I grabbed a copy of a New York tabloid, without knowing anything
about the newspapers in the New World. I still remember the title displayed
across the whole front page: “Top Cop Fired”. I could not believe that a
newspaper could print such a disrespectful title. In the newspapers I knew, this
kind of news would be buried on page 4 (that is, on an even-numbered page to
which people always pay less attention) under the title “The head of the New
York police department released from his duties”. The directness and irreverence
of New York tabloids impressed me then and still impresses me now. They do not mind
publishing “Trump is a Bump” or ”Hillary, the Deplorable”. When the domestic political
scene heats up, they take no prisoners: they are in-your face, brutal. I buy
them, from time to time, when I take Amtrak, just to enjoy their freedom from convention.
It is not the “All the news fit to print”. Often, it is the news not fit to
print, but precisely for that reason more important to print.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Anwar Shaikh, the most left-wing economist in the world,
introduced me to “The Wall Street Journal”. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I met him in his office as he was writing the monumental
“Capitalism: Competition, Conflict, Crises”. He told that he reads the WSJ
because it tells the truth about what is happening in the economy. It struck me
then by the seeming oddity of the most left-wing economist in the world praising
the most right-wing daily in the world. But Anwar was right. An economics daily
has, in the part that deals with the real life, to be as objective as possible because
if it spreads fairy tales people who believe them will lose money. Then no
capitalist will buy it. For they do not like to lose money. In the trade-off
between the fairy tales and cash, they chose the latter. Other dailies that
appeal to the “pensée unique” do not need to worry about that kind of elemental
truth. They can make things up.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">I am one of the last Mohicans who reads the print news. I used
to buy “China Daily” in New York and Washington for 25 cents but the booths
that sell the paper have largely closed now. I think it is because the Chinese
government sees it as a waste of money (it is true that at times the dailies were
not “renewed”; so on a Thursday morning the most recent issue would be the one from
Monday). Several years ago in Moscow I challenged my Russian friend to find a
single newspaper kiosk in a thirteen-million-people city. He could not. But luckily
in the hotel where I was staying they were distributing the “Kommersant” an excellent
Russian version of “The Financial Times”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">One of the few countries that is resisting the onslaught of the
digital print and where one can still, every day, find all the print newspapers
and magazines, is Spain. I like to hang around the kiosks, deciding which newspaper’s
font, color, and smell I like the most. Then I grab the paper, open it, smell
its print, and think nothing has changed in fifty years. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
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<![endif]-->Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-11966965720713847202024-01-21T15:35:00.000-08:002024-01-21T15:35:30.816-08:00The politics of physiocracy: Quesnay and China<p> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">P</span></span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">hysiocrats are not much read today.
This is unfortunate because many of their views have present-day relevance. Their
writings were often intentionally murky and paradoxical, expressed in a form
that is seldom used today, in maxims and short and at times enigmatic, sentences
and in the famous <i>Tableau economique</i> whose overall idea is clear but
details baffling. To economists today, they bring, on the one hand, common neoclassical
views on freedom of trade, free circulation of labor, capital and goods (across
regional lines within a single nation-state and between the countries), freedom
of contract between workers and capitalists, single tax, and progressive taxation
of wealth. On the other hand, they are (I think) often misunderstood to have
thought that agriculture is inherently more productive than manufacturing. A
much more reasonable explanation of their <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>position is to point out that only in
agriculture did an income source, the land rent, exist that could have been
taxed without “creating injury” to production. It is only in that sense ---tax-yielding—that
agriculture was seen as more “productive” than manufacturing. (Incidentally,
similar misapprehensions exist today when manufacturing jobs are considered
inherently “better”” than jobs in services.)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The part of the physiocratic doctrine
which is even less studied than economics is their politics. They were
defenders of absolute monarchy of a special kind. The imperial China to which
Quesnay (in response to Montesquieu’s critique of China in “The Spirits of the
Laws”) </span><a href="https://www.institutcoppet.org/despotisme-de-chine-francois-quesnay-1767/"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">dedicated an entire monograph</span></a><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> of more than 100 pages, was their ideal
kingdom. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Physiocrats’ rationale is similar to
that of the Chinese legalist tradition. For physiocrats it went as follows.
Once the natural laws (“la loi naturelle” or even “physiocracy”, the term apparently
invented by Quesnay who liked to play with Greek neologisms) that consist in
personal freedom, private property and security of person, are discovered,
there is not much more that a society needs to do but enforce them. It needs
only two things: (1) a body of educated people who are selected according to merit
and who understand the body of laws and might improve and refine it, and (2) an
absolute sovereign<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>whose role is to make
sure that the laws are enforced. Most of the time, and ideally all the time, sovereign
does nothing since the laws, if followed, establish that perfect equilibrium
between the private and the public interest. The sovereign is at the same time
the most and the least powerful person in the state. He is the most powerful because
he alone can put an end to the rot if it happens that the laws are
transgressed; but since the likelihood of transgression is small –given that
the laws are the most rational possible—sovereign most of the time has nothing
to do.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Quesnay found the then Chinese
system, as known as that time in Europe, to be the closest approximation to
that ideal. Unlike the French aristocracy of blood that was the body of people
who interposed themselves between the sovereign and the people, the Chinese
mandarinate was selected on merit. It designed the most perfect laws because it
consisted of the most talented people. It goes without saying that physiocrats saw
themselves in that role: as a replacement for a decadent, ignorant and indolent
aristocracy. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The “absolute” rule can still
remain, but now it would be based on right principles and use of the right
people.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">As Quesnay says at the introduction
on his treatise on China entitled “Despotism of China”, the term “despotism”
has two meanings. The first is unchecked or absolute power <i>within</i> the
law and used to make sure the laws are respected, the second is unchecked and
arbitrary personal rule. Under the first title, despotism is fully legal (since
based on the enforcement of legality) and legitimate, under the second,
illegitimate:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; margin-left: 1.0cm; margin-right: 1.0cm; margin-top: 0cm;"><span lang="EN" style="font-size: 14.0pt; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Despot means MASTER or LORD: this title can therefore be applied
to sovereigns who exercise absolute power regulated by laws, and to sovereigns
who have usurped arbitrary power which they exercise for good or evil over
nations whose government not is not regulated by fundamental laws. There are
therefore legitimate despots and arbitrary and illegitimate despots.</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> Democracy, defined as the selection of
rulers by the ruled, has no place in the physiocratic system. It is entirely redundant.
It is not clear what its role would be (had they ever envisaged it): perhaps
only to mess up the perfect principles of the natural law. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The relevance of physiocrats’ thought
is obvious when we consider today’s Chinese system. Formally speaking, it is
similar to the system Quesnay described. An absolute sovereign is selected from
within the ruling group, and the legitimacy of his rule is reflected in the
excellence of the laws and the quality of the body of people who implement
these laws. The quality of the social system is therefore judged by its performance.
The key part of that performance -and physiocrats were in this the precursors
of what we consider today a “normal view”—is how fast economic abundance is increasing
for the majority of the population. If people are getting steadily richer,
there is little or nothing to change in the laws. And therefore nothing for the
mandarinate or sovereign to do. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The system is, like any person,
judged based on its performance, not on the technical ways its rulers have been
selected, how strong is the state, or any other “extraneous” objective. It is
the rule “for the people.” </span></p>
Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-49545355756775610982023-11-16T09:20:00.000-08:002023-11-16T09:28:48.705-08:00The three German fears<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="table of authorities"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="macro"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="toa heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I spent an extremely hectic and intellectually
stimulating week in Berlin. Despite my reasonable following of German politics
(nobody interested in Europe can afford to ignore German politics) I was unprepared
for the extent of the malaise that appeared in almost every conversation. During
that week, I gave a talk on my new book “Visions of Inequality”, had a presentation
on global inequality and a panel discussion with the Confederation of German
Trade Unions, and participated at the opening of a website on wealth inequality
in Germany. I thus met people from different walks of life: academics, trade unionists
and people close to the ruling SPD, researchers of inequality, several journalists
who interviewed me, and even several politicians who gave talks at various occasions.
But neither in their public talks nor in private conversations, could I fail to
observe a large dose of pessimism. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">What were the topics that fueled the pessimism?
Here is an approximate list: <span style="background: white; color: black;">inflation
and dearness of energy, economic stagnation (near zero growth), the rise of the
extreme right, political paralysis, loss of exports to China, decline of German
car technology, high wealth inequality, imperfect assimilation of foreign-born
population, inefficiency of German railways, dark streets in Berlin (saving of
energy), full political dependence on the US. One could go on depending on the
person I talked to, chance movements of conversation, and the daily mood. </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">To a foreign
observer who might have disembarked into Germany not knowing much, that
pessimism seems exaggerated. On the positive side of the current ledger one
could list the overall wealth of the country, acceptance of more than 1 million
Syrian refugees and almost as many from Ukraine, and full employment. Yet the
negative tones dominate.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">I think that the pessimistic
mood dominates not only because of the current wars in Ukraine and in
Israel/Palestine, and general uncertainty that has enveloped the world, and
Europe in particular, but because of the resonance of current concerns with the
events from one hundred years ago in Germany. It seemed to me that the current
events played on three important German fears: runaway inflation, wrecking of
democracy, and the rise of antisemitism. All three are grounded in the Weimar
period, and like a person who has been once poisoned, the fear of a similar outcome
is not assessed by the actual strength of the current “poison” but by past
memories. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The fear of
inflation that largely destroyed the credibility of the Weimar republic is well
known. It has been behind extremely cautious German monetary and fiscal
policies ever since the end of the World War II. The difference between the
inflation of 1921-23 that attained at its peak the monthly rate of 30,000
percent, and the current single-digit annual inflation is enormous. Yet, the present
inflation is driven by the rise in the prices of staples like energy and food.
Its impact—however small in numbers—seems disproportionate. It affects poorer
segments of the population much more than the rich. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">This in turn
raises, more acutely than before, the issue of wealth inequality and
redistribution. Despite many years of social-democratic rule and an extensive welfare
state, German wealth inequality is very high. According to SOEP household survey,
39 percent of the German population has zero (or quasi zero) net financial wealth,
and almost 90 percent of the population rather negligible net financial, or
non-housing, wealth (reflected in the fact that their monthly income from property
is under 100 euros per person). This makes German wealth inequality (depending
on the metric one uses) equal or even greater than the very high US wealth
inequality.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>A feeling that many large
fortunes are hidden or enjoy tax shelters thanks to different European schemes
and tax competition between the EU countries, adds to the feeling of
unfairness.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The second fear
is that of fragility of democracy. That fear too seems, on the face of numbers,
vastly exaggerated. But the full establishment of the Alternativ für Deutschland
as a stable parliamentary party with about 10% of the vote, and not a passing
fad like the Republicans in the past, serves as a reminders of a non-negligible
chance of a sharp movement to the right, or of the right’s indirect influence on
the coalition governments (of whatever hue they may be). There is of course no
direct denial of democratic way of government by the AfD, nor (it would seem)
any likelihood of them coming to power as a dominant member of a coalition, but
the inchoate fear that one detects is more like a concern of a gradual erosion of
democracy along the lines of what has happened in Hungary and perhaps in
Poland. Both the form and some essential features of democracy may be retained but other essential
features may be gradually diluted. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The third fear
is, in a way, the most irrational but does not seem to me absent. Germany’s
strong, and perhaps excessive, support for Israel in the current war in the
Middle East has its obvious roots in the Shoah and the atonement for those
crimes which the German public opinion and politicians have since the establishment
of the Federal Republic put on a level of an almost core principle, equal to
democratic governance and judiciary independence. The irony is that an excessive
zeal in atonement might lead to the unquestionable acceptance of policies that
lead to crimes committed against civilian populations. Germany thus faces an
almost Greek-like drama: the desire to correct for past misdeeds may lead to
the acceptance of current misdeeds.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="background: white; color: black; font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">The three fears displayed
in the already gloomy atmosphere of the European global economic decline, unremitting
immigration pressures from the South that Europe is unable to accommodate (as
shown by the closing of frontiers in Nordic countries), its energy dependence,
and absence of a distinct political voice, made me look at the unusually dark
streets in Berlin—and indeed at well-lit and cheerful clubs and restaurants—with
a somewhat greater foreboding than they deserve.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
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Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-44449669300448421862023-10-28T14:46:00.011-07:002023-10-28T21:02:10.122-07:00There is no exit for dictators<p> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">I</span></span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">n <a href="https://academic.oup.com/ooec/article/doi/10.1093/ooec/odad002/7036634?login=false">an
interesting paper he tweeted yesterday, Kaushik Basu</a> discusses, using a
mathematical model, an old problem: how rulers once they are in power cannot leave
it even if they wish to do so, because their road to power, and in power, is littered
with corpses that will all (metaphorically) ask revenge if the ruler were to
step down. Furthermore, since the number of misdeeds and of rulers’ real or
imagined enemies multiplies with each additional period in power, they need to resort
to increasingly greater oppression to stay in power. Thus, even the originally well-meaning
or tolerant rulers become, with the duration of their rule, tyrants. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Basu is aware of the millennial nature of the problem;
he cites Shakespeare’s Macbeth. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He could
have also cited Tacitus’ description of Tiberius’ descent into murderous suspiciousness
and folly.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Basu terms this issue “temporal inconsistency”
because his assumption is that the ruler would like at one point to leave and
spend the rest of his life in affluence and leisure. (I write in “his” life
because all individuals listed in Basu’s paper are men, and he strangely resort
to the use of “she” and “her” in the mathematical part of the paper.) This assumption
of a ruler who wants to retire is unrealistic, and I will explain why below, But
before I do so, I need to note that there is no inconsistency in the ruler’s or
dictator’s behavior in each individual period. (Basu acknowledges this in the
latter part of the paper by stating that fully rational maximizing behavior in
each individual period may still lead to on overall suboptimal outcome.).
Assume that the ruler plays an annual game where he wonders: am I better off if
I retire now or if I commit another crime which would make my retirement next
year more difficult but my rule this year safer? The answer is simple: he is
better off committing another crime in the expectation that this would make his
overthrow less likely. He replays that game every year and every year he
reaches the same conclusion. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thus, the
ruler’s decisions are not at all irrational or even inconsistent.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>From Machiavelli’s
point of the art of statecraft it would be equally wrong to fault the ruler. According
to Machiavelli, the role of the ruler is to rule like the role of a baker is to
bake. In order to rule he must unavoidably commit misdeeds or crimes because it
is the nature of politics and human society. But he should not use unnecessary
force; in other words, crimes must be acknowledged by the ruler intimately as such
and their use must be kept to the minimum necessary to stay in power. And
indeed most rulers do believe that they are doing just that.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>But why is the
very assumption of a ruler who wants to retire generally wrong? (I know that there
are some examples of rulers who have chosen the road of retirement but they are
extremely rare: the reason why we speak of Sulla is precisely because he was unusual
in choosing retirement and powerlessness after having committed many misdeeds.)
The assumption is wrong because rulers’ objective is not a comfortable life on
a yacht in the Pacific—the example Basu gives in the end of the paper—but raw
power and enforcement of an ideology. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>When power
as such becomes the objective, as it is among all politicians, and autocratic
rulers especially, there is no amount of worldly goods that could substitute for
power. Rulers cannot be cajoled (as Basu seems to believe) into leaving power.
And this is not just because of the possible punishment that may await them in
retirement, but because they crave, and they need, the exercise of, power.
Svetlana Alliluyeva writes in her memoirs that her father lived only for
politics and was interested only in politics. And indeed whoever has read
memoirs of Stalin’s comrades or Stalin’s biographies could not be but struck
with the emptiness –in the normal human sense—of the life that Stalin led at
the peak of his power. It was the life of interminable meetings, long hours of
reading, quasi solitary dinners with a few scared companions, monotonous
banquets; a dry life devoid of both humanity and affluence. There is nothing
you can offer to Stalin to make him leave power even if you can guarantee that
he would live for the rest of his life safe in luxury.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The same applies
to ideologues. Or perhaps even more so because ideologues believe that they are
on a unique mission to save their nation or the world, and obviously then being
in power is a necessary condition for such a salvation. Take Hitler as the
easiest and strongest example. He believed from a relatively young age that the
Providence has selected him to save Germany and make it powerful again. Thinking
that offering him, say in 1938 or 1942, a retirement in the Austrian Alps, or an
endless Wagner festival in his beloved Linz, in exchange for stepping down is so
ludicrous that can produce only derision and laughter.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Basu’s concluding
sentence that giving rulers an escape route through<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>luxurious retirement might make many “Individuals
with no interest in power and tyranny…strive to become tyrants for no other
reason but to get that castle in the Pacific Island” although said probably in jest
and with the intend to provide a paradox, is simply wrong. Rulers do not <b>want</b>
to go to the Pacific islands. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Dictators
often evolve during their rule, moving more toward the power-hungry tyrants and
ideologues than they were in the beginning of their reign, even regardless of
the amount of crimes they might have committed. Here Putin comes to mind. He
came to power by giving the impression to be ready to do the oligarchs’ bidding,
to be hard-working and meticulous, pro-western, and in love of comfort and affluence.
Gradually however he evolved: first, by dropping the oligarchs who brought him
to power, and then by changing ideologically to see himself as a savior of
Russia. If that is supposed to be his role, he obviously has no choice but to
stay in power because everybody else, in his view, would drive the country to
ruin.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>We thus come
to the conclusion that there is absolutely nothing that can be offered to dictators
to leave power; thinking that there is something shows a misunderstanding of
what motivates people in politics. It also shows a naivete of other economists (not
Basu as he explicitly rejects it) who hold that <b>all</b> human activities are
driven by the search for material profit and comfort. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Basu’s suggestion
that there should be globally-enforced term-limits is not only impossible
to implement but shows a misunderstanding of politics. Regarding the practical impossibility
of its implementation one need only mention that such a rule would never
pass through any international organization, but that even if that were to
happen, there would be many ways to avoid observing the rule while formally adhering
to it. Putin, at first, side-stepped the issue of term limits by taking the position
of prime minister while effectively still remaining in charge; Havel got rid of
term limits because he argued that being president of Czechoslovakia was
different than being president of the Czech republic. Djukanovic, the Montenegrin
leader, ruled for more than three decades by switching between the positions of
president and prime minister. Erdogan did the same by changing the system from parliamentary
to presidential. There is, in effect, no way technically to implement the notion
of a global term-limit even if somehow, miraculously, the world were to come to
believe in them.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>And more importantly
there is nothing that can be offered to dictators to make them step down. They
have to continue to rule until they either die peacefully in their beds and after
death became either vilified or celebrated (or at times, both), or until they
are overthrown, or meet an assassin’s bullet. Once on the top, there is no
exit. They have become prisoners like many others they have thrown in jail. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"><br /></span></span></p>
Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-70118144300089098882023-10-08T20:01:00.001-07:002023-10-08T20:01:03.661-07:00On general futility of political discussions with people<p> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">O</span></span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">ver the years I have had political
and ideological discussions with at least three groups of people and have concluded
that these discussions are, almost entirely, futile in making people either see
things differently, or acknowledge that others may see things differently, or -God
forbid-- change their opinions however slightly. That of course opens the question
how people come to hold certain political and ideological positions—since at some
level they must be influenced by views of others: their parents, family, and
even random interlocuters. I do not have a good explanation for that. I think
that reading, watching, listening and thinking does lead people to form and then
to change opinions but I am very sceptical that direct discussion does it. The
former methods are indirect: one reads an author and finds him convincing; but
if one has a discussion with somebody acknowledging that that person has produced
valid arguments appears to diminish him compared to the other person, and one’s
intellectual vanity does not wish to accept that. Hence, I think, discussions
almost never lead toward some genuinely-felt greater similarity of opinions.
They just leave the participants where they were before. Or worse, lead them
further apart.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">For the participants who are more passionate
or involved in the discussion, such an outcome is more frustrating. They
therefore dispense a much greater amount of intellectual, mental and ultimately
physical energy in trying to convince the other side—without success. They thus
spend hours reviewing the arguments made, look for possibly better ways they
should have presented their case, explore the weaknesses of the opponents as if
any of that would make any difference. They waste their time and energy.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The three groups of people with whom
I had chance (or misfortune) to have discussions and found impossible to move even
a millimeter away from their held beliefs were Stalinists, nationalists and
liberals. But their way to discuss things was different from each other. They
were all equally unyielding in their views, but adopted somewhat different tactics.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Stalinists whom I had the “privilege”
to discuss chronologically the first introduced me to the type of discussion tactic
that were used by the other two groups too. To any strong argument from the interlocutor
they would produce either a denial (such and such event never occurred; there
is no evidence; it was somebody else’s propaganda etc.), or they would accept that
the uncomfortable fact occurred, but will justify it by an even greater perfidy
of the other side. As I mentioned, I would see exactly the same arguments used
by nationalists and liberals too. One advantage that Stalinists had compared to
the other two groups (and that is the advantage of which I became aware much
later on) is that they respected the knowledge of communist history. So, if you
attacked them, they would produce the denial and petrify arguments, but would respect
your knowledge. They might even ask you about the fact they did not know.
Communism thus functioned entirely like a religion. Christians have been at
each other throats since the religion was founded: but the knowledge of finer theological
or historical points was respected by the different sects even when they
disagreed on almost everything else.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Political discussions with nationalists
can, I think, best be described as throwing pebbles against an immense rock.
You can throw as many pebbles as you wish, the rock will not be hurt nor moved.
Like Stalinists they use denial and perfidy of others commonly, but perfidy of others
now spreads to everybody under the sun except their favored nationality. In
that sense, perfidy was much more widespread than for Stalinists since perfidy
included n-1 national groups in the world. Moreover, if you bring two opposite nationalists
together, since they both believe that n-1 groups are all equally at fault, the
conclusion is that it suffices to have only two of them to prove that the entire
world is evil. Thus one quickly establishes the conclusion that in nationalists’
worldview it is ultimately the human nature that is evil since no nation can be
exempt from it and the individual characteristics do not matter as they are determined
by one’s ethnicity or race.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The third immovable group are liberals.
They tend to be more sophisticated and more knowledgeable but this does not make
them more intellectually honest. Actually, one could say the reverse because
they handle sophistry with exquisite skills. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Gree rhetorician Aelius Aristide’s comment
from 1,900 years ago regarding Cynics applies to them: “They deceive like
flatterers, handle insults like superior men, combining the two most opposite
and repugnant vices: vileness and insolence.” They also use denial and perfidy of
others as arguments, but they find them “served alone” to be too crude. That’s
where sophistry kicks in. To any incontrovertible uncomfortable fact they do
not produce just a denial, but shift the discussion on<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>secondary or tertiary matters of marginal
relevance to the topic discussed. That produces huge frustration in the
interlocutor. It is akin to playing a soccer game which one is winning 3-0,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>but the other side refuses to acknowledge the
defeat arguing that what really counts is the number of shots on goal, or free
kicks or any other marginal statistics which is in their favor. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>All attempts to drive the discussion back to
the original topic, and to the argument to which they have no valid counterpoint
fail in the face of this intransigent tactic which consistently shifts the
realm of the discussion elsewhere. Since liberals are more sophisticated than
the other two groups they also use “rope-a-dope” tactic where, faced with uncomfortable
truth, they do not reply to the argument but just shrug it off as irrelevant: “everyone
knows that things are like that”. This again has a very negative effect on the interlocutor
as it seems to present him as a very naïve person who takes the ideological
stance of liberals seriously. In reality, they say, even if not loudly and
clearly, flexibility is all: we may do things one way one day, and entirely differently
the next day, but ideologically we shall always claim to be unswervingly loyal
to our beliefs.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">I have not had much occasion to
discuss issues with true conservatives (who may not be vulgar nationalists) nor
with the new generation of woke liberals, so I cannot tell how their tactics
may differ from the ones that I mentioned. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">I have thus come to the conclusion
that if one believes in a certain point of view and yet has a limited amount of
mental energy, it is entirely wasteful to use it in trying to convince others
in direct discussions. It is much more effective to write and read and listen
than to have Socratic or any other dialogues. They, I think, lead nowhere. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p>
Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-85808321267793538562023-09-30T11:35:00.003-07:002023-09-30T11:35:50.700-07:00Why is the Serbia-Kosovo situation globally serious? <p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
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</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">I learned about the newest dispute between Serbia and Kosovo
in a New York café when I overheard a very animated conversation between a lady
who seemed to blame Serbia for World War I (and perhaps World War III?) and the
well-dressed maitre d’ who<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>was so excited
that he kept on stammering that Kosovo is an integral part of Serbia, not recognized
by most UN members.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">But, leaving aside WW1, why is the current situation, and I do
not mean in the next week but in the next years as well, extremely serious? It
is, after all, not only a very local squabble but a squabble about the
territory half the size of Luxembourg, with the population (around 70,000) less
than those living in a few buildings along the Hudson river, and even from Serbia’s
own perspective entirely marginal as it involves about 1% of all Serbs. Why
should the world order depend on this? Because, as often in history, it is
small conflicts that are being fought for big stakes. Because small nations like
to draw into their conflicts big powers so to achieve their own (small) objectives
while big countries see such conflicts as tests of their power.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">To understand why the crisis is serious, we have to look at its
four actors. They are (in the order of discussion here), Kosovo, Russia, NATO
and Serbia.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Albin Kurti, the PM of Kosovo is, without much doubt, the most
capable politician in the Balkans. He is helped in this by his anti-colonial ideology
(as he believes, with some good reasons, that Kosovo should have never have
been part of Serbia; it became part of Serbia in 1913) and very good political skills.
Kurti’s short-run objective is to solve the “Serbian problem” in Kosovo by
expelling the Serb minority. He sees the Serbs there as people who would never
accept Albanian sovereignty (and he is right in that), and he notes that the expulsion
of the Serbian minority from Croatia made Croatia much more politically stable
(and he is right in that too). In order to achieve his objective he needs to
constantly terrorize the Serbian minority, make them feel unsafe and ultimately
incentivize them to leave. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine he has (again rightly)
realized that if he manages to provoke a war, he will become a new Zelensky and
will have a full support of NATO. (His long-term objective is, I think, the
unification of Kosovo and Albania but for now we can leave that out of discussion).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The second actor is Russia. Before the war in Ukraine, Russia
had an interest to maintain tensions in Kosovo, but not to encourage a war. Things
have changed since: Russia has a clear interest to create as many conflicts in
the world as possible, not only to weaken the West, but to “globalize” its war with
Ukraine so that a final settlement, when it comes, would be akin to the renegotiation
of the global order that was introduced, or imposed, after the end of the Cold
War. Moreover, for Russia, the NATO-Serbia war would be as comfortable as for
the West is the Ukraine-Russia war. They would send war materiel to Serbia (if
they can spare any) but will not have to bear any human cost. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">So for now have two actors in favor of the war.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">But we have one actor against the war. That actor is, perhaps
unexpectedly, NATO. NATO does not need another conflict in Europe, on an
entirely peripheral matter of no importance to the United States, while it is focused
on the global-order changing de facto war with Russia.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>NATO and the<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>EU were so angry with Kurti’s destabilization tactics that he has employed
since February 2022 that they recently moved to the mildly pro-Serbian positions
simply in order to keep things quiet and the conflict from escalating.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The fourth actor is Serbia and it has now an incentive to go
to war. The reason is as follows. President Vu</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">čić</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> ‘s policies have for more than a
decade been driven by the objective of obtaining in Kosovo a
territorially-based Association of Serbian Municipalities to which several pre-Kurti
Kosovo governments, with EU inducement, have agreed. Vu</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">čić</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> would then have been able to claim domestically two victories:
to have given to the Serbs in Kosovo a quasi autonomous government while not having
recognized Kosovo’s independence. Quire a feat. That strategy failed when Kurti
refused to accept Western demands to do what the previous Kosovo governments
have agreed, and introduced his tactic of daily harassment. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">If Vu</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">čić</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>cannot get a key part of his program and at
the same time has to deal with Kurti-induced harassment of the Serbian minority,
thus exposing his own impotence, his entire policy has failed. Would then a war
help?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">There, we have to take into account that such a war that
would start with Serbian forces moving into Kosovo to protect the population in
four municipalities and would immediately pit Serbian forces against NATO. But
it will not be a cake-walk for NATO. NATO won the 1999 war by bombing civilian
targets and threatening to carpet-bomb Belgrade with Ahtisaari and Chernomyrdin
on the same side of the table showing to Milo</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">š</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">evi</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ć</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> that Belgrade would be a <i>table
rase</i>. There would be no Chernomyrdin now. The war would also put NATO in a
very awkward position of either sending ground forces to Kosovo which is not
logistically easy (and is wasteful in light of possible wars with Russia or
China) or bombing Serbia as in 1999. The world would be then treated to daily
images of civilian targets being destroyed in Ukraine and Serbia by<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>two rival super powers. Other than for propaganda
reasons (that the West with its powerful propaganda machinery can more or less control),
the war would require significant NATO forces that would either have to expel the
Serbian minority from Kosovo or fight against them in an environment which would
obviously be hostile.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">But it is precisely such a calculation of difficulties of
NATO invasion of the Serbian enclaves in Kosovo which might embolden Vu</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">čić</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> to go for war. He might recall <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that Milo</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">š</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">evi</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ć</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">’s popularity reached its peak
precisely during NATO bombing of Serbia, that his personal power was then untrammeled
by any parliamentary or social restraint, and that he managed to eventually extract
a fairly good agreement (that was never observed by NATO). And Vu</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">čić</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> might hope that the “winds of freedom” of which he eloquently
spoke at the recent UN General Assembly assembly might, miraculously, like in the
First World War, turn things in his favor. </span></p>
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</p><br />Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-57487670328386595102023-09-24T20:37:00.002-07:002023-09-24T20:42:24.416-07:00The red bourgeoisie<p> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">J</span></span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">une 3, 1968 was a beautiful late
Spring day in Belgrade. The school year was just about to end, and, for me the
best days were about to begin: until the mid-July when many of my friends who
had either relatives in the village or second homes on the seaside would go on vacation
and I would not see them for two months. But now, during the beautiful, clear
June days with long sweet evenings we could stay out in the streets seemingly
forever, play soccer, tell tall stories and talk about the girls. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">During that day, June 3<sup>rd</sup>,
just for a few moments, probably to pick another soccer ball, we went to the apartment
of one my friends; only his grandmother was there. The phone rang. His mother
called. She worked for the federal government whose HQs were across the river.
In deep panic she called to tell her son, my friend, not to go out in the
streets, but to stay at home because (and I do remember her words well) “the students
are out trying to overthrow the government”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">For sure, as soon as we were told by
the grandmother that we should stay indoor, we promptly went outside. My friend’s
apartment, like mine, was close to one of the main university buildings in Belgrade.
When we, kids, got there it was already occupied by students, surrounded by the
police that did not let anyone get into the university perimeter (in those
days, the old-fashioned rules of the “university autonomy” were still observed,
even under communism), and we could just look at the seemingly feverish activity
inside and listen to the incendiary speeches carried on loudspeakers.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">We were attracted to the “forbidden”
things happening there. So I remember when several days later as the insurrectionist
students communicated with the city only through large banners, I first saw the
words “Down with the Red Bourgeoisie”. It was a new term. The students were
protesting against corruption, income inequality, lack of employment opportunities.
They renamed the university of Belgrade, “The Red University Karl Marx”. It was
very difficult for an officially Marxist-inspired government to deal with them.
The days of uncertainty <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>ensued: the newspapers
attacked them for destroying public property and “disorderly conduct”, but
rebellious students continued skirmishes with the police, and proudly displayed
the name of their new university. I remember vividly a bearded student with a
big badge “The Red University Karl Marx” standing in the bus, and everyone around
him feeling slightly uncomfortable, not sure whether to congratulate him or curse
him.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">But the slogan was true. It was a protest
against the red bourgeoisie, the new ruling class in Eastern Europe. It was a heterogeneous
class: some came, especially so in the underdeveloped countries like Serbia,
from very rich families; others from the educated middle class, many from
workers’ families. Their background was similar to the background of students
who were protesting against them now.. Had the students won in 1968, they would
have become the new red bourgeoisie. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The red bourgeoisie itself was the
product of huge inequities of underdeveloped capitalist societies. From my
mother, who got the story from my father (who came from an impoverished merchant
family) I learned that on the last day of his high-school, when he managed to save
enough money by giving private math classes to the rich parents’ kids and
proudly came to school in his new coat, one of the rich kids took the inkpot
and poured it on my father’s jacket: “you will never wear what we wear”. Many years
later when I told the story to my North European friend, he said you me: “this
is the European class system in a nutshell”.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">It is against such a system the
students in the 1930s, who would later become the red bourgeoisie, stood up. But
by 1968 they were the new ruling class and the new students stood up against
them.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">This ruling class is insufficiently studied
and known. It varied between the countries. I liked<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>lot a book by Tereza Toranska about the new bourgeoisie
in Poland, </span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Them-Stalins-Polish-puppets/dp/0060156570"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">entitled “Them”</span></a><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">; a young Serbian journalist Milomir
Maric wrote in the 1980s a popular book called “The children of communism” (</span><a href="https://www.laguna.rs/n2343_knjiga_deca_komunizma_i_-_magle_sa_istoka_laguna.html"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">in the origin “Deca komunizma”</span></a><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">). The story of the red bourgeoisie’s
very top is narrated in the Russian novel, “</span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/The-House-of-Government-audiobook/dp/B0753L88BB/ref=sr_1_4?keywords=house+on+the+embankment&qid=1695609310&s=books&sr=1-4"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The house of government” by Yuri
Slezkine</span></a><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">. One can
find it in Solzhenitsyn’s “First Circle” too.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>Emma Goldman noticed it very early on, just a few years after the
October Revolution. I was pleased to re-discover that I discussed some of its
empirics (income level, housing ownership) in my 1987 dissertation. But this is
all very little. The class is unexplored, neither in literary terms nor in its economics.
</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Like all ruling classes, its members
did not think they were a ruling class. I asked many years later one of my
close friends who, thanks to her belonging to the upper echelons of the red bourgeoisie,
spent several summer holidays on the three small islands off the Dalmatian
coast that Tito took for his exclusive resort, how were social relations
among the people there: powerful indeed, but each with their own different
agendas, wives, children, preferences, drinking habits, and the like. (Very
similar to the US Martha’s Vineyard in the Summer: people who may not suffer each
other politically, but are “condemned” to be there together, sharing the same
beaches, restaurants, tennis courts, with children fighting each other or falling
in love.) She told me nothing: she saw none of the political infighting or personal
feuds reflected on the beaches or in the altercations over the umbrellas. She
did not think people there were special in any way. It was just another workers’
rest home, with better food and more comfortable rooms.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The Yugoslav red bourgeoisie was
perhaps specific because it was self-created (i.e. came to power by itself),
and developed among its members a feeling of pride connected with non-alignment
policies and the huge role that Yugoslavia, compared to its objective importance,
played in the world. Eventually, that bourgeoisie splintered along the republican
lines, every one deciding that it would be more powerful if it could break country
in smaller pieces and rule that small piece unmolested by others. That’s how
democracy was born.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">I thought of that recently—as indeed I
had for many years—as I read about the background of many among the capitalist rulers
of Yeltsin’s Russia and today’s Putinism. Their origins are typically in the affluent
upper-middle class of the red bourgeoise. That ensured for them all the privileges
of the Soviet system, including (in the Soviet case) the ability to travel to
the West, to trade in foreign currencies, to listen to the latest rock albums
from England. They were the ones who when Gorbachev came to power most eagerly embraced
democracy, adulation of the United States, and gaily participated in the
plunder of the country. They bought villas in the Riviera, and then, either disappointed
at the treatment they received in their Summer resorts by their new Western
neighbors, or having overgrown their infatuation with the things Western and
the United States in particular, moved to the other side, championing nationalism
not only as a way to stay in power, but to create an ersatz ideology that would
justify their continued rule. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p>
Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-33884170639233165832023-08-31T07:51:00.002-07:002023-08-31T07:51:42.957-07:00Thinkin’ ‘bout a revolution<p> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">A</span></span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">s I suppose many older people do, I
was thinking about the most important parts of my life, not only personally,
but socially: how did the social forces around me affect me and made me think
what I think.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">There is little doubt that for most
of my generation in the West and the East the Cultural Revolutions of the
1960s-70 were a crucial event. (I have to exclude the Third World from this generalization
since I do not know enough about how the Western Cultural Revolution affected ideology
and the mores there). </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">May and June this year was the 55<sup>th</sup>
anniversary of <i>Les </i></span><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">é</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">v</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">é</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">nements de mai</span></i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">. Last week was the 55<sup>th</sup> anniversary of the Warsaw
Pact’s invasion of Czechoslovakia that also saw the birth of the modern
dissident movement in the USSR when eight persons<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>unfurled a poster on the Red Square
condemning the invasion.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The Revolution caught me in the formative
years of high-school. All events that happen at that age, even when not revolutionary,
have an impact on people’s later lives. So much more if they are revolutionary.
We were lucky that the events that affected us were revolutionary mostly in the
cultural sense. At the same time China went through the Cultural Revolution,
but it was an altogether different series of events, more serious, more
ideological, and far bloodier. But no less significant was the Western Cultural
Revolution.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">What did it accomplish? It reduced
social distance between the rich and the poor, a huge achievement; it liberated
sex and improved women’s social position in a way that led to the current acceptance
of gender equality and all sexual preferences among the liberal elites; it
ensured equal or similar civic rights for the Black population in the United
States; <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>it changed dramatically
vestimentary habits, simplified them, and thus added to the apparent social levelling
by making it more difficult to recognize social status from one’s dress. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The revolution was similar in the
West and in the Communist East, but it produced very different effects. In the
West, politically, it diminished class polarization and class antagonism. I
lived through the Revolution in Belgium where I went to high school. There was
no doubt in my mind when I arrived there that Belgium was a class-stratified
society where only rich parents’ boys could date rich parents’ girls. The rules
were clear. The Revolution, incrementally, eroded them however: by the
mid-1970s, this was not longer true. It produced a deep social change which, I
think, has persisted.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">In the East, where class differences were
less or were obliterated by the political revolution of the late 1940s, the new
Revolution opened the vistas of freedom.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>It hinted that a different, much freer and diverse world existed close
by and that it was possible—not a Utopia. It stimulated resistance to the authorities,
and the feeling of freedom—both things that were anathema to the communist regimes
that valued conformism and obedience. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Revolution’s effects were long-term
and were seen well among the generation that came to power twenty years later. It
may seem strange to unify in the same sentence Bill Clinton and Mikhail Gorbachev,
but they do illustrate well what I have in mind. Clinton was the product of
breaking class barriers to advancement while Gorbachev was a product of the
Ideas of 1968: socialism with the human face. That belief affected Gorbachev in
his student years as we know from Zden</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ĕ</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">k Mlyna</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ř</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">’s memoirs and Gorbachev’s own
“confessions”. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">One of the complicating features of
the Revolution was that it was leftist not only in the social ways that I
described, but also because it brought from oblivion the Young Marx (whose
early works, by coincidence, were first published then, more than 100 years
after he wrote them), and thus the belief in democratic socialism. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The challenge to the ossified pseudo-Marxist
regimes in the East came from the left. And even better—thinking of the Young
Marx—from <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>the very founder of the political
system the authorities claimed to represent. It was not a coincidence that almost
all leaders of the Revolution in Eastern Europe came from the Communist Youth
movement: the entire Praxis group in Yugoslavia, students of Lukacs in Hungary,
Jacek Kuro</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">ń</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">, Adam Michnik, Leszek Kolakowski (coming from the hard Stalinist
left) in Poland, Ota </span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Š</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">ik and Alexander Dub</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">č</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">ek in Czechoslovakia. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The Revolution was similar to the
Reformation: it refreshed and re-affirmed the original ideological beliefs, and
thus highlighted the gap between them and reality. Later the leaders will, with
the rest of the society, move towards the right: either in nationalist or classical
liberal directions. But that was only possible because the first opposition
came from the left, and was thus ideologically more valid than had it come from
the discredited right. My point is that in 1968, East European regimes were well
equipped to deal with the challenges from the right; but they were ill-equipped
to deal with challenges from the left and with the seemingly apolitical
challenges of long hair, loud music and bottom bell trousers. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">In the West, however, after breaking
up some of social barriers and thus establishing apparent equality, the Revolution
ended up, in many ways, like the Revolutions of 1848. In the latter case, formal
political equality was proclaimed; in the case of the Revolutions of 1968, formal
social equality was proclaimed. But in<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>both cases economic gaps became wider. Moreover, the post-1968 economic
gaps became regarded as more justifiable than before when the revolutionaries
argued that they were due to large class differences. Now as the Revolution
unfolded the gaps reflected differences in ability and effort—in short, in merit.
This is where the two iconic figures of the revolutionary generation and the
turn to neoliberalism come: Bill Clinton and Tony Blair. It was the left that validated
the traditional positions of the right, made them seem common-sensical and thus
more firmly entrenched. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The left-wing attack on the regimes
in the West soon morphed into the validation of the positions of the right, now
even reinforced because shorn of its usual, and hard to justify, class support.
The seemingly anti-capitalist Revolution of the 1968, made the world safe for
capitalism. Joschka Fischer became foreign minister of Germany and oversaw the first
deployment of German military might since the end of the Second World War; Bob
Dylan received the Medal of Freedom; <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Mick Jagger was knighted. To more vividly
appreciate the change, note that Jeremy Corbyn, perhaps the only significant
political figure in the West who continued to hold the 1968-like beliefs, came
to be seen in the 2020s like a relic from a distant past.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The political effects of the
Revolution East and West were at first different, but over the long-term,
almost identical. In the East, as we have seen, the attack on the regime was
from the left and that made the regimes clumsy in their response. But socialism
with the human face, or any kind of socialism for that matter, was gradually
discarded, and in an evolution that mimicked that in the West the end-point was
declared to be what V</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">á</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">clav Klaus called “capitalism without
adjectives”. Liberals, united with strong forces of nationalism that grew
independently in the meantime and were rather unimportant in 1968, brought
communist regimes down. (I am not denying thereby the importance of American
readiness to wage war on Communism in every quarter of the globe; when I say
that the regimes were brought down from within, I have in mind the fact that ideologically,
by 1989, Communist regimes had very little to offer to their populations.) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The Revolution–with the important exception
of nationalism that I mentioned— fashioned the world in which many of us lived until
the Financial Crisis of 2008, or covid in 2019, or the war in Ukraine in 2022—whichever
of the three possible markers dividing the eras one wishes to take. But in any
case, it is plain that we live in a different ideological world today.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p></p>Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-89211017152000535032023-08-25T16:36:00.003-07:002023-08-25T16:36:27.625-07:00BRICS and non-alignment today<p> <span> </span><span> </span><span> </span><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">T</span></span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">he expansion of BRICS membership is
directly related to the expansion of NATO and NATO-like alliances around the
world. When this statement is read superficially without understanding what is meant
it seems wrong: the two organizations could not be more dissimilar. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The new globalized NATO is a hierarchical, monolithic,
and military alliance. None of the four terms applies to BRICS. BRICS is non-hierarchical;
the members are extremely heterogeneous and often in political disagreement with
each other; BRICS’ <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>objectives are not military;
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>and it is not an alliance but a mere
organization. While two of the now eleven BRICS members are in open or tacit
conflict with the West, the others are not. BRICS is not a counterweight to the
West or NATO. But it is growing in reaction to NATO’s globalization. Why?
Because it is the only place where nations not interested in participating in
the new Cold War, or even in a possible hot war between the superpowers, can “run
away” in order <b>not</b> to have to choose sides.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">It is a profound misunderstanding of
what BRICS is, to search for commonalities amongst the members and not having found
them to dismiss the organization. Looking for commonalities at times makes
sense—but not always. Let’s go over some historical precedents. We can think of
international political organizations in positive terms, that is of countries banding
together because they believe in a set of common things (which they might consider
values). When the Nazis created the Anti-Comintern Pact (the Tripartite pact), the
member-countries, spanning two continents, believed in nationalism and fighting
Communism; when NATO was formed in 1949, the member countries believed in democracy
and containment of the Soviet Union; when the Warsaw Pact was formed in 1955,
the member countries believed in expansion of communism, or at least in defending
it over the area it then ruled.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">But when the non-alignment movement
was formed in the late 1950s and early 1960s (note the dates!), or later the Group
77, the members did not possess a positive agenda similar to the ones I just listed.
Their agenda was negative: they did <b>not</b> want to have to choose sides in
the Cold War waged between the West and the East. They wanted to stay out of
it. Many people failed to understand the logic of non-alignment, precisely because
they failed to understand that you can create an organization composed of
heterogeneous countries that may disagree on many issues, but find it useful,
for geopolitical reasons, to get together in a loose association. Non-alignment
was liked neither by the Soviet Union nor by the USA. The Soviets believed that
it was superfluous because the USSR was “the natural ally” of the Third World
and decolonization and rather than getting together in a new organization, the Third
World countries should simply support the Soviet bloc. The United States saw
the non-alignment as little better than betrayal: countries who drew the equivalence
between democracy and tyranny. John Lewis Gadis, the US historian of the Cold
War, barely disguises his contempt for the movement and when he condescends to note
it, calls it “the so-called ‘non-alignment’ movement.”</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The movement in fact ended with the
end of the Cold War. This also shows what its true role was: to be a buffer
zone during the global confrontation between the US and the Soviet Union, and
to minimize the likelihood of their members becoming the ground on which the proxy
wars may be fought. Once that confrontation ended, there was no room for non-alignment.
It was not obvious what one is non-aligning with anymore. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">But now when the contours of a new
Cold War are apparent, the need for an organization grouping countries that do <b>not
</b>want to be involved in it (and including, somewhat incongruously, and for historical
reasons, countries that are in war or conflict with NATO and the West, namely
Russia and China) had naturally re-emerged. Many commentators dismiss the new
BRICS because they dislike the idea of the formerly Third World nations, whose
economic importance has risen, getting together. They fear the grouping will,
in some economic areas like de-dollarization or international infrastructure
finance, challenge Western supremacy. Other, as I mentioned, very wrongly believe
that any grouping must be based on some shared ideas, values, interests, or on hegemonic
pressure. Not finding any of the four among BRICS, they dismiss them. Indeed, if
BRICS could have more in common they would be stronger. But they do not, and
cannot have---for various historical, political or cultural reasons. Yet, the fact
that an increasing number of countries want to join BRICS cannot be ignored,
nor taken lightly. BRICS’ refusing to participate in new global trade, proxy or
actual wars may make such wars less likely. And BRICS’ economic clout may help
reduce some of the glaring economic imbalances between the rich, middle-income,
and poor nations across the world.</span></p>
Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-31184776826594560052023-08-14T18:03:00.001-07:002023-08-14T18:03:11.039-07:00Why slave-owners never willingly emancipated their slaves?<p> <span> </span><span> </span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">When I wrote my chapter on
Adam Smith in <i><a href="https://www.bing.com/search?q=branko+milanovc+visiomns+of+nequality&form=ANNNB1&refig=03458569ac374bd693157a97647de9b9">The
Visions of inequality</a> </i>(to be published October 10) I considered including
a section discussing Smith’s views on slavery. I eventually decided against it because
slavery plays only an incidental role in Smith; most of his analysis in <i>The Wealth
of Nations</i> assumes the three standard social classes that are all formally
free and the interplay between them generates their incomes and social positions.
In that context slaves who no longer existed in countries with which Smith was mostly
concerned, namely England, Scotland, France, Netherlands, and the rest of
Western Europe, were somewhat outside of the main scope of his interest. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">However Smith's views on
slavery are, as is well-known, fairly complex.<a href="https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/adam-smith-is-democracy-always-better"> I
wrote about his argument that the position of slaves was better in autocratic than
in <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>oligarchic democratic governments.</a>
The reason is that in an oligarchic and representative government the power is
held by the people who themselves are the largest slave-holders (US comes to
mind) and they are very unlikely to emancipate slaves because they would thus deprive
themselves and their friends of a large amount of capital. They are wary to
treat them well because they are permanently afraid of slaves’ insurrection. In
richer societies (Smith explains this at some length), the income and social
gap between the master and the slave is much greater. Slave has also much more
to covet. Hence, in more democratic and richer societies the treatment of
slaves, in order to forestall their insurrection, must be particularly harsh. In
one of perhaps most striking passages in <i>The Lectures on Jurisprudence</i>
Smith says:</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Opulence
and freedom, the two greatest blessings the men can possess, tend greatly to
the misery of this body of men, which in most countries where slavery is allowed
makes by far the greatest part. A humane man would wish therefore, if slavery
has to be generally established, that these greatest blessings, being incompatible
with the happiness of the greatest part of mankind, were never to take place. LoJ
(A), February 16, 1763.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">(The passage is, I think,
so seldom cited because it questions the two most cherished<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>beliefs: popular government and opulence. If
both can exist only if slaves are terrorized, what good are they? It is a
striking statement.)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">In more autocratic forms
of government, the kings are not necessarily dependent on slaves for their
power and, as Adam Smith explains regarding the abolition of serfdom in Western
Europe, they might even like to get rid of forced labor if it reduces the power
of local lords that could use slave armies to challenge the king. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">But the most important
part which attracted attention of the economists, and I <a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2635917">want to
single out a recent paper by Barry Weingast</a>, is the following. Smith very
clearly in his <i>Lectures on Jurisprudence</i> states that slavery, as an
economic institution is, inefficient. That means that a slave-toiled land would
yield to the owner much less than if the same land were leased for a reasonable
rent to the tenant. The reason is obvious: the tenant farmer has an incentive
to increase production even if he has to give one-third (Smith’s estimate, but
we can substitute any number) of the crop to the owner. The owner can easily
calculate that over a period of <i>x</i> years, the Net Present Value (NPV) of the
rent he gets would exceed the amount of the surplus product that he receives
from slaves, to whom he pays only the subsistence wage. We are not talking here
about high mathematics. Things are pretty simple. We can introduce different discount
rates, and different amounts for rent, different productivity differentials for
the land worked by free vs. slave labor etc., as Weingast does, but whatever
set of (reasonable) assumptions we choose the final result is the same. The landlord
should just dismiss his slaves, offer to some of them to continue working as
free tenant-farmers, find new tenant famers if needed, and spend the rest of
his time at leisure enjoying the rent. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">So why did not slave owners
do precisely that? Why we never observe in history <i>endogenous</i> scrapping of
slave-holding when it is such an inefficient system and when the owners could
actually make more money by hiring free labor than by using slave?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">It is a fair question and
Weingast solves it by using a game theoretic framework showing that neither side
can credibly commit to their part of the bargain. (He does this because he introduces,
in my opinion, totally unnecessarily further assumption of slaves buying over time
their freedom. Yes, slave owners can try to extract that too, but in a simple
model, it is superfluous. For slave owners are better off even if they emancipate
slaves for free.)</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The reason why this spontaneous
emancipation has never happened in the real world is the following. What would
be the reaction that our emancipatory landlord would meet from his peers at the
news that he has just released all his slaves? How would such an act be viewed
by them? Certainly not with pleasure and warmth. As Smith writes, slave-owners
like all property owners, the richer they are the more they live in a perpetual
fear of expropriation by the poor. Every slave-owner forms part of that
implicit compact. Everyone who, as a slave-owner, does not observe the compact is
as much of a threat, if not more, to other slave-owners as slaves themselves. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Smith holds that in richer
countries, where the slave-owners are much richer than slaves, they are
especially fearful of rebellions. The only way to hold slaves down is to apply brutal
control that Smith details, with gory detail: from whipping them on a daily basis,
keeping people in chains during most of the day, or even in the most gruesome
example crucifying them for trivial offenses, hacking their bodies into pieces
and then feeding them to the fish. In such an atmosphere of fear of constant
rebellion a landlord who would follow the economic logic described above would
find no sympathy from other landlords. Moreover, other landlords would do everything
to stop the manumission: they might claim that our economist-landlord has lost
his mind, has been bewitched by slave wizards, is mad, a traitor, foreign agent,
anything. They would do everything to make his life impossible, to make him
change his decision and short of it, to punish him by seizing the land which in
their view he is mismanaging. So, in calculating gains and losses from slavery
on a piece of paper is a very different proposition from acting on what the
calculation reveals.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">But let us go further and
assume that for some reason the rationality prevails and that his decision to
emancipate the slaves gets imitated by many, and enjoys a sufficient momentum
so that at certain time a large number of slaves become free, as it were, spontaneously.
Make even further a very unrealistic assumption that the powers-that-be which
Smith very clearly associate with people who own slaves and who, as he says, “hate
them” overcome the hatred because of material interest and agree to the emancipation.
</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">We have to ask the new question
then: what will happen next? If the land was originally toiled by 5 slaves and
can now be worked equally productively (yielding the same <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>output) by 1 tenant this means that all the
released slaves will not be able to find a job on the land on which they worked
before. Perhaps only a fraction would. Others would congregate in the urban
areas looking for jobs there. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">And that's where the
problems begin. There will be a massive surge of brutalized, poor and unskilled
people who would get into a cut-throat competition with the urban proletariat, driving
the wages down and getting into conflicts, perhaps riots and fights, with the working
class. Moreover in the urban areas there would be now two large classes of malcontents
with unstable jobs, subsistence wages, deep hatred of each other and even
deeper hatred for the rich. This is something the top politicians among slave-owning
elite are unlikely to overlook. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">This is not a very
different situation, just more dramatic, than what many contemporary developing
countries have faced: immense inflow of labor from the countryside into the
urban areas which has created political instability, violence, crime, and
conflict between different parts of the lower classes and then ultimately the conflict
between the lower classes and the upper classes. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Only a little dose of
reality shows that the Panglossian idea, shared by some economists (but not by
Adam Smith) that by proving that slave holding was not profitable for the individual
landlord should have led to the spontaneous emancipation of slaves. Such economists
make several logical mistakes: they make a composition error by assuming that
what is true for one might also be true when it is extended to everybody, and
they ignore political externality by assuming that other slave-owners are not
affected by the decision of some of them. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Most importantly they
make a mistake that Smith did not make: they disregard political forces and
political implications of such a big move. After all we have by now sufficient
historical evidence that no society has ceased being slave-holding spontaneously
through the working of economic factors alone: not the slave-holders of Egypt, nor
Persians, nor the Arabic slave-holders, nor the slaveholders of Justinian’s Eastern
Roman empire, nor the slave-holders of the Western Roman Empire, nor the
slaveholders among the Visigoths and Ostrogoths, not was forced labor abolished
spontaneously in France, nor in the Habsburg empire, nor in Russia, and obviously
not in the West Indies and the American South. And it is not because
slave-owners were not numerate enough to calculate Net Present Value that economists
have discovered.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The way slavery was
crushed and abolished was almost always through the use of violence: riots,
revolution, threats to government, and civil wars. Adam Smith, who believed
that anti-slavery forces will never be strong enough to abolish slavery: “Notwithstanding
of those superior [economic] advantages it is not likely that slavery should be
ever abolished, and it was owing to some peculiar circumstances that has been
abolished in the small corner of the world in which it now is” was wrong on
that score, but he offers us a cautionary tale showing that looking only at economic
advantages without considering them in their political context is insufficient.
We can draw game theoretic boxes but they are a paltry substitute for what we
observe in reality. They may be a starting, but never an ending, point. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p></p>Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-949446443014157512023-07-17T05:09:00.006-07:002023-08-06T15:05:48.966-07:00On global inequality, China's rise, the war in Ukraine: My conversation with "Atlantico"<p> <strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px;">What is your take on the riots that are going on in France at the moment? </strong><span face="Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; color: #404040; font-size: 19px;"> </span></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;">To be completely honest, I don't have a full understanding of the situation. However, upon superficially examining the available French data, it doesn't appear that income inequality is increasing in France. This observation holds true not only for the past five years but also for the last three decades. Therefore, I don't believe that there is a straightforward explanation, such as a rise in the Gini coefficient, or the top 1%, that is sufficient to account for the occurrence of riots. It seems that the French perspective on this matter emphasizes local issues. It's worth noting that these riots are not an isolated incident but rather a recurring phenomenon that has persisted for a considerable period, spanning several years ago. There were also other recent protests sparked by events such as the pension reform. Consequently, it is plausible that there exist underlying and deeply rooted problems that extend beyond the scope of simple inequality measurements. </span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></div><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">Doesn’t that raise the question the feeling of inequality in a society, and especially when it is mixed with identity issues and anxieties?</strong><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"> </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Yes, I believe so. I have a French friend who, for a period, pursued a political career in a suburb near Paris. He described to me a world that is vastly different from the urban environment of Paris that tourists like myself and others tend to experience. Therefore, it is plausible, as you mentioned, that the perception of exclusion plays a significant role. I have come across discussions on Twitter that suggest a certain "Americanization" of the issues, which, to some extent, I believe holds true. Both situations (the American in 2020 and the current French) involve problems related to identity and exclusion. However, I must emphasize that these insights are purely observational, of an outsider. To be honest, I was genuinely taken aback by the abruptness and the considerable level of violence exhibited during the riots. </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">You've republished on Twitter some data you have on the Gini coefficient and inequality measurement in former Yugoslav republics. What do you think it can teach us about the past and the present situation ?</strong><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"> </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="font-family: arial;">You know, let me take a moment to explain my background. Many years ago, I worked on my dissertation, which focused on inequality in Yugoslavia. However, that was back in 1987. In hindsight, I made a mistake during that research. The household survey data I used dated back to the 1960s and followed two different principles of organization. They provided data at the republican level, with four social groups within each republic: urban population, rural population, mixed, and pensioners. Being a materialistic historian with Marxist leanings, I completely disregarded the republican levels and focused solely on the Yugoslav overall level for my entire dissertation. But the republican level turned out to be politically much more salient, and even then I did observe some issues. If you looked at a wealthy republic like Slovenia, everyone tended to fall into the top five income brackets (out of 10 given). Conversely, in a very poor province, such as Kosovo, the population was predominantly in the bottom five brackets. These observations stuck with me, and I thought that I should have organized my research differently. </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Recently, I stumbled upon a Twitter discussion about the convergence of Soviet republics, which piqued my interest. I decided to examine GDP data and compare it to the numbers I had from the household surveys. I was surprised to discover significant differences within the Soviet Union, approximately 2 to 1 between the top and bottom republics. </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">Can it tell us something about the past trajectories of the countries or the future?</strong><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"> </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="font-family: arial;">More about the past rather than the future—a reflection of the challenges involved in sustaining countries with large income differences that stem from geographical differences in income: specific regions being richer and also exhibiting limited geographical mobility. Additionally, historical, cultural, and religious factors also contribute to these disparities. In contrast, when examining Spain, I found the differences between the top and bottom provinces to be around 1.5 to 1. Clearly, sustaining as unified country the one with 5-1 difference as in Yugoslavia in the 1980s is much harder than if the maximum gap is 1.5-1 as in Spain. </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="font-family: arial;">However, I don't believe these observations can provide us with a comprehensive understanding of the present because these former republics have now become independent countries. As a result, they are more homogeneous in terms of ethnicity, religion, and income. This is a crucial distinction—the countries have evolved to become more internally cohesive. </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">Do you think that at some extent, the war in Ukraine and Russia has something to do with Inequalities and the evolution of inequalities?</strong><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"> </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Not quite. I actually had a blog where I explored four different theories regarding the conflict. The theory that I personally find most plausible, though it doesn't provide a direct explanation for the timing of the war, relates to the long-term effects of the socialist system and its single-party structure. Each republic had its own branch within the single party that governed the republic. Over time, in order to secure legitimacy, the leaders of these republican branches embraced and supported nationalist agendas. This would have been more challenging under a multi-party system, as different parties would represent various political ideologies. However, in this case, the leaders within the single party increasingly adopted nationalist stances. Consequently, even during the breakup of the Soviet Union, you had nationalist parties effectively governing each of the different republics, Ukraine included and even Russia that, under Yeltsin, actively pressed for the break up of the Union. Therefore, I believe that nationalism was inherently embedded in the system, contrary to the expectations of its creators. Putin has later exacerbated this nationalist or perhaps imperialist tendency. While the theory offers insight into the long-term dynamics, it doesn't directly explain the specific outbreak of war on February 24, 2022. </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">Is there any link to be made between an emerging nationalism or feeling of anger, and the inequality level in a country?</strong><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"> </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">I must admit that it is a challenging question to answer. The available data alone cannot provide a clear understanding, and while researchers have explored the perception of inequality, it remains difficult for me to make a definitive statement. However, if we consider specific examples, we can observe varying trends. For instance, Russia has experienced a decline in inequality over the past decade. On the other hand, Ukraine presents an intriguing case. Despite the perception of high inequality, the household survey data, although possibly imperfect, indicate relatively low levels of inequality in the country. This outcome wouldn't be entirely surprising if the concentration of inequality was primarily at the very top, beyond the 1% threshold, say within the 0.1% or 0.01%. Such disparities may not be adequately captured by synthetic measures. While this response may not directly address your question, it highlights the complexity involved. In essence, it remains a challenging question to answer definitively, and I don't have a conclusive response. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">Your work shows that global inequalities are tending to fall, and that even within countries, the trend is not necessarily upwards. Yet the subject of inequality has become particularly central in developed countries, almost obsessive. How can we explain this paradox? To what extent has this subject been instrumentalized?</strong></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">I think one has to realize that there is a significant time lag between first, the changes in inequality, second, the knowledge of these changes among the researchers, and third, the spreading of that information among the general pubic. For example, in most Western countries inequalities increased from the 1980s or 1990s until the first decade of the 21</span><sup style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">st</sup><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"> century, but the full realization of this happened only with the financial crisis and middle class income difficulties. Now I think we may be undergoing a reverse evolution. In the United States, Germany, Japan and France, the level of income inequality has been stable (with small annual fluctuations) for at least a decade. In the UK, inequality has declined from its early 2000s peaks. But once people's attention has been turned to inequality, it is, I think, difficult to forget about it even when it is stable. In fact, it could be stable but still found by many to be too high. Or, it could be, as I mentioned before, that significant time has to elapse until people's perceptions change. </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">To what extent has it also become an issue between different countries or geopolitical blocs? Is inequality a power issue ?</strong></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">I am not sure that it is a power issue because I do not see that there are marked differences in inequality between the currently politically competing models. China is actually more unequal (in terms of income distribution) than the United States. It is not credible to claim that political capitalism tends to produce more equal outcome. Or if one takes Russia which now, at least officially, claims to defend different values than the West, lower inequality is certainly not among them since the country is exceedingly unequal in terms of power, income ad wealth distrbutions. The war, as reflected in the origin and background of people who have been conscripted to fight it, must have only deepened income and existential inequalties. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">You recently published a piece in </strong><em style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">Foreign Affairs</strong></em><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"> about the great convergence. What do you mean by this great convergence? </strong><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"> </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Okay, well, that's a more straightforward question since it is based on empirical data! In the past few decades, primarily due to China's economic growth but also due to the progress of other countries, global income levels have risen significantly. China, for instance, achieved an annual per capita growth rate of around 8.5% over a span of 40 years. This growth, coupled with the economic progress in Asia and other countries with large populations, had two noteworthy effects. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Firstly, it resulted in a substantial decline in global inequality, marking a significant departure from the trends of the past two centuries. This outcome is rather evident if we consider a hypothetical example, using a country like France. In such a scenario, if relatively poorer individuals experienced a 10% income growth while relatively wealthier individuals saw a 2% growth, it would naturally lead to a reduction in inequality. The same is true globally. However, it's worth noting that despite this decline, China itself witnessed a rise in internal inequality, which was also observed in countries like the US, India, Russia, and the UK. Hence, the national increases served as a counterbalance, albeit not strong enough to outweigh the overall global inequality decrease due to high growth rates in Asia. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">The second effect of this decline in global inequality was the reshuffling of positions among individuals. In other words, people from countries such as China or India suddenly found themselves becoming part of the top 10% globally, while middle or lower-middle classes from rich countries were pushed lower in the global pecking order. This shift in relative positions can lead to various political and socio-economic implications, particularly for those in the middle class in wealthier countries. Some individuals in Western affluent nations may experience a decline in their relative global standing, even if their real incomes continue to increase by 1% or 2% annually. These are two distinct but interconnected aspects stemming from the same underlying reasons. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">To conclude, it's important to recognize that when people hear about a decline in global inequality, they often express support for such a trend. However, it becomes more challenging when they realize that it also implies a decline in the global rankings of the middle class in the United States, France, or the UK. Even if their actual incomes continue to rise, this aspect can be politically sensitive. Nonetheless, it's crucial to understand that these two facets cannot be separated from each other. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">How do we manage to deal politically with such a paradox ? </strong><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"> </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">I believe that politically, this is a complex issue. It's crucial to be cautious with language and emphasize that when we talk about a decline, it's a relative decline. In other words, it means that one's position is decreasing compared to others, even if one's real purchasing power is still improving, But of course at a slower rate than that of others. And eventually they will be overtaken. However, some argue that it doesn't matter because people measure themselves against their immediate surroundings, their friends, and acquaintances. While this may be true, there are certain globally priced goods that middle-class individuals in Western countries may find increasingly challenging to afford and acquire. For example, attending events like the World Cup in Qatar or vacations in Asia, which can be incredibly expensive. These changes can impact the middle class and its ability to access certain experiences. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">I understand your political question, and it is indeed not easy to explain or disregard the concerns of Western middle classes. Striking a balance between, on the one hand, advocating for the reduction of global income inequality and lesser global inequality of opportunity, and on the other, the reshuffling of global income positions that I just explained is indeed politically very challenging. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Reflecting on your question, Adam Smith's perspective in "The Wealth of Nations" sheds some light on the matter. He compared England and France, noting that France had a larger population than England or Scotland. From a purely humanistic standpoint, one might argue that improving incomes in France is more important because it affects more people. However, Smith observed that an Englishman or Scotsman who prioritizes the well-being of another nation rather than his own would be considered a poor patriot. This presents a fundamental dilemma, and we don't have a definitive answer to it. We find ourselves caught between a cosmopolitan view that desires prosperity for all and a concern for our own income positions. Resolving this dilemma is far from easy. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">Yet greater equality global equality is not inevitable. Does that mean that some perhaps may not want that greater global equality?</strong><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"> </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">That's a valid perspective to take: a national position that prioritize the well-being and position of one's own country and people in the global income distribution. It's important for individuals to clearly express and stand by their beliefs clearly, rather than claiming to be globalist or cosmopolitan while holding a nationalistic stance. It is politically legitimate stance regardless of whether we agree with it or not. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Regarding the future, we can observe that as China has achieved significant economic growth and development, it no longer serves as the primary engine driving global inequality reduction. In fact, China's growth may contribute to global inequality as it outpaces countries like India, Nigeria, and Sudan. However, this doesn't address the second problem we identified, which is that China will continue to move towards income levels historically associated with European and American populations. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">In terms of global inequality decline, the situation will depend in the future on the trajectory of other regions, particularly Africa. Africa is expected to experience a population increase throughout this century, making it the only continent with a growing population. If Africa does not achieve high growth rates, the decline in global inequality may be hindered. In my extensive article, which is similar to the </span><em style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">Foreign Affairs</em><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"> piece, I highlight the necessity of very high growth rates in Africa. A per capita growth of 5% per year, along with an additional 2-3% due to population growth, would be required to achieve substantial progress. Achieving 8% real growth for several decades is not easy, to say the least, and if we look at the past 50 years of African growth, we cannot be optimistic. </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">Do you believe that the fact that China grew that wealthy in such a short amount of years explains at some point its current behaviour and its aggressivity? </strong><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"> </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">These are indeed complex and challenging questions. Personally, I don't view China as an aggressive power. However, I do recognize that China's growing economic and military strength has given it a sense of increased confidence and influence. Technologically, China has made significant advancements and has a more prominent global presence. It is unrealistic to expect China to retreat to its previous position from the 19th century when it was subjected to colonization by various European powers and Japan. Economic growth tends to enhance a country's self-assurance and may lead to behaviours that others perceive as aggressive or arrogant. This pattern is not unique to China; many countries throughout history, such as the United Kingdom, France, Spain, the United States, and the Soviet Union, have demonstrated different behaviours when they felt strong and influential. However, I must emphasize that my knowledge in this area is limited, and the subject is primarily political in nature. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">Why are you so prudent on how global inequalities could evolve ? </strong><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"> </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Indeed, caution and prudence are warranted in assessing the current global situation. Several factors contribute to the uncertainty we face. Firstly, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has left a lasting imprint that will take time to fully comprehend. While it may eventually subside, its consequences will linger for a while. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Additionally, two major crises further complicate the picture. The first is the complex and unpredictable relationship between the United States, the Western world, and China. In the worst-case scenario, this could potentially escalate into a war, while in a less severe scenario, it may lead to a trade war with profound implications for technological development of both sides, China's global relations, and its economic growth. Furthermore, China's investments in Africa could be affected, influencing that region's economic trajectory too. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">The second crisis involves the situation between Russia and Ukraine, which adds another layer of uncertainty. Although the populations of Russia and Ukraine alone may not significantly impact global inequality when considered on a global scale, if the conflict were to spread to Europe and potentially escalate into a nuclear war, the consequences would be catastrophic. In such a scenario, discussions about global inequality becomes irrelevant. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">There is also intensifying climate change whose effects too are complex and difficult to predict. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Given these intricate and unpredictable circumstances, it is challenging for anyone to accurately forecast the world's state in the next five years. Those who claim to possess such foresight are likely deceiving themselves. The multitude of factors at play and their potential evolution make it impossible to definitively predict the future. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">How do we navigate economically ?</strong><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"> </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">The challenges faced by individual countries are indeed specific to their economic policies and circumstances. Each country must adapt and adjust to various shocks and disruptions. For instance, the war in Ukraine and the impact of reduction in imports of Russian gas and oil had significant repercussions for Europe. However, Europe managed to navigate through these challenges and make necessary adjustments, as evidenced by the relatively uneventful winter last year. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">Nevertheless, my concern lies in the growing number of shocks that countries are now confronted with. Returning to our earlier discussion, Western Europe, and Europe as a whole, is experiencing multiple shocks simultaneously. These include the consequences of the war, energy-related issues, climate change impact, and the increasing unpredictability of weather patterns. Additionally, social unrest and protests have become more frequent. The cumulative effect of these shocks can place immense strain on a system's ability to effectively manage and address them. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"><strong style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">What did you think of the initiative for a global financing pact? </strong><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;"> </span></p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">If that favors increasing cashflows, I’ll consider it a positive thing. But I have some concerns regarding the increasing role of private individuals, funds, and foundations in shaping agendas and decision-making processes. It is indeed notable that actions that were traditionally undertaken by states and international organizations are now being influenced by wealthy individuals and their foundations. This situation reflects the plutocratic nature of our world, where a concentration of wealth can lead to significant influence and decision-making power. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">For instance, as someone who has worked at the World Bank, I witnessed firsthand how the Gates Foundation, due to its substantial funding, had a considerable say in determining the research priorities and activities of the institution. While this may be seen as a means to increase the flow of resources, it also raises questions about the concentration of power and the potential impact on impartiality and broader societal interests. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;">In summary, while it is desirable to increase the flow of resources for impactful initiatives, we should be cautious about the influence of the wealthy on research agendas and decision-making, and strive for a more balanced and equitable distribution of power and influence in our societies. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin: 0 0 var(--size-20) 0;"> It would make more sense to me if countries were to tax the rich, take that money and decide how to give it to Africa, rather than letting the rich tell the states how it should be done. I don't dispute their good intentions, but they're certainly not the ones who should have the power to decide whether one should, build stadiums, do vaccination or bring drinkable water. I simply don't think they are the ones who should be making those decisions. </p><p style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px; line-height: 1.6em; margin-bottom: 0px;"><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">Link to the Frech version of the interview is </span><a href="https://atlantico.fr/article/decryptage/branko-milanovic-le-discours-qui-s-alarme-des-inegalites-ne-correspond-plus-a-ce-qu-on-enregistre-dans-la-realite-mondialisation-economie-entreprises-croissance-marche-du-travail-emploi-europe-etats-unis-asie-euro-dollar-pouvoir-d-achat" rel="" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">here</a><span style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0;">.</span></p><div class="single-post-section comments-section" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; color: #404040; font-family: Spectral, serif, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 19px;"><div class="container" style="--tw-ring-color: rgb(59 130 246 / 0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: var(--size-16); justify-content: flex-start; margin: var(--size-16) auto; min-width: 280px; overflow-wrap: break-word; width: 728px;"></div></div>Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-50551596606188680052023-07-08T15:31:00.012-07:002023-07-10T03:25:54.040-07:00Equality based on exclusion<p> <span style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: x-large;">T</span></span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%; text-indent: 0.5in;">he ideological history of the idea of equality (“</span><a href="https://www.bing.com/search?q=mcmahon+equality&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&lq=0&pq=mcmahon+equality&sc=7-16&sk=&cvid=4F123BB4807143E3B90EECC072A07CF1&ghsh=0&ghacc=0&ghpl=" style="text-indent: 0.5in;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Equality: The History of an Elusive
Idea</span></a><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%; text-indent: 0.5in;">”) is an ambitious,
erudite and well-written book by Darrin M. McMahon. In eleven chronological
chapters McMahon shows how societies as diverse as hunter-gatherers, Greeks and
Romans, early and medieval Western Christians, French revolutionaries etc. and
ultimately the partisans of identity politics have thought of equality. (Not <i>inequality</i>,
the term that has, as McMahon reminds us, become ubiquitous, but <i>equality</i>.)
Not all chapters are equal though. In my opinion, the best are on the American
and French revolutions, and the concluding chapter on US civil rights movements
and today’s politics of identity. The concluding chapter is indeed about the
United States only, and as it stands for today’s world in general, it could be
thought as somewhat reductonist. However, the two big themes faced by the American
society in the past half-century, the rights of Black population or “people of
color” and identity politics, transcend US limits, as the French riots attest
for the former and Putin’s vociferous attacks on sexually-based identities on
the latter.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The motif of
the book is, I think, best expressed in the phraseology of (not popular, but
recently much more quoted) Carl Schmitt: every ideology of equality among the
“brothers” or “peers” is predicated on the exclusion of others from that equality.
This is a fundamental contradiction in the idea of equality as we know it
historically. Athens and Sparta insisted on equality among their citizens, but excluded
enslaved people, metecs (resident foreigners) and women. It was an equality
that, at most, encompassed a third of the population. Christians, like all monotheistic
co-religionaires excluded from the application of their equality members of
other religions. The American revolutionaries wrote that all men are created
equal, but they really meant men only, and defined that equality in the
opposition to the enslaved people. In percentage terms, the reach of the
American equality was not greater than the Athenian. The French revolutionaries
were more universal in their approach, but gave only a grudging recognition of
equality to the colonized. Marxism is keen on equality among proletarians,
but excludes “bourgeoisie”, and in its Maoist variant during the Cultural
Revolution, created the most radical reversal by openly discriminating people
from the “bad” social classes, and promoting (including in the access to education)
those from the formally oppressed classes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>As this
review shows, equality went together with exclusion. Often, the more equality
among one group was emphasized, the stronger was the implied chasm with the
excluded. Before I move to discuss two, in my opinion, most interesting issues
raised by McMahon, let me mention that McMahon’s several comments on Marxism’s
lack of concern with equality (as opposed to its interest in abolition of
classes) is not a controversial point. McMahon at times seems to believe so,
but his interpretation is accurate, non-controversial, and shared by most who have
read Marx and Engels. Similarly, I think that few people who know Fascist
ideology would be surprised by its emphasis on national equality. It was supposed
to solve the class conflict, to unify national labor and national capital, to
divide one nation from another, and thus its within-national calls to equality
are not surprising.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The two most
interesting aspects, in my opinion, are identity politics and (what is missing
in McMahon’s book almost entirely) the contrast between national and global
equality. But are present-day issues.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Identify
politics in McMahon telling comes at the heels of the civil rights movement in
the United States. That movement too, in its extreme version propagated by Stokely
Carmichael, Malcolm X and “Black Power”, as they outflanked Martin Luther King,
could be seen within the same motif as the rest of the ideologies discussed in
the book: the Whites were now excluded from the application of the equality principle,
thus creating a reverse racism or (in Sartre’s words) “anti-racial racism”. But
the civil rights movement also opened the gap with Black women who saw some of the
movement’s leaders as imbued with machismo and “male chauvinism”. White women
themselves have had a historically fraught relationship with Blacks’ emancipation;
as McMahon mentions, Susan B. Anthony thought it was much more important that (White)
women be enfranchised than that the rights be extended to Blacks. But
men/women, Blacks/Whites are not homogeneous among themselves once sexual
differences are brought into the play. Thus, somewhat paradoxically, the movement
for equality not only led to the fragmentation of society into many groups, working
at times at cross-purposes, but to the emphasis on <i>differences</i>. “To
insist at difference as the very <i>meaning of equality</i> [is] in the long-run
of egalitarian reflection a novel claim”, as McMahon discreetly observes. The
struggle for equality that does not underscore some fundamental equality, or
even sameness, among people but rather their differences is not common, to say
the least. One can paper over this by arguing that all current movements just
ask for recognition of specificity and equal treatment. But at what point does
the insistence on differences, and even incommunicability of experiences,
becomes exactly what we have seen before: insistence on equality within by creating
an ever-greater divide from the rest?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>My second comment
has to do with what is, with a few exceptions, absent in McMahon’s book. It is
the change in perspective when one moves from claims for national to claims for
global equality. McMahon mentions how the two were linked in the US civil
rights movement, and how the New International Economic Order tried (and
failed) to equalize the power of rich and poor nations. But it might have been
worth discussing a bit more the change in perspective brought about by
globalization. Consider equality of opportunity. There is probably no ideology
today that would be against equality of opportunity within a nation-state. But
extend that call for equality of opportunity to the global level and the
problems immediately arise. If the “same” persons in Sweden and Zimbabwe face
entirely different life prospects (in terms of income, wealth accumulation, housing,
life expectancy etc.), and if the main reason for this lack of equality is the
difference in mean incomes between the nations, there are two obvious ways to remedy
this state of affairs: transfer more money from rich to poor countries (a global
welfarist approach as envisaged by Gunnar Myrdal) or open borders to migration.
Neither enjoys a majoritarian support in rich countries. It then becomes
interesting to ask on what grounds people who often strongly support equality
of opportunity, exclude from its application people who do not reside in their country?
We see there the same mechanism as many times in history: the greater the
desire for equality amongst the peers, the greater the need to exclude others.
It then becomes fully understandable why countries with the most developed
welfare states (Sweden, Denmark Norway, the Netherlands) are the most
notable examples of the ideological U-turn on international migration. <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>I have taken
the last topic to show how McMahon motif plays well in contemporary situations
even in cases where ideologically the issue has not been fully developed.
McMahon’s (or Carl Schmitt’s)<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>approach thus
shows its obvious advantages, but it also leads us to a less upbeat conclusion:
unlike the oft-quoted “long arc of history" that allegedly bends toward “justice”
(meaning equality), the outcome may be greater equalities in some
areas and the creation of
greater chasms between people in other areas. This is what history seems to
teach us.<o:p></o:p></span></p>Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-4095928019715427642023-07-04T18:00:00.002-07:002023-07-04T18:00:14.298-07:00The new colonialism, or how some countries have lost self-respect<p><span style="font-size: large;"> <span style="line-height: 150%;">T</span></span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">here is a news items today that, in simply reaffirming in an
extreme form what was happening in the past thirty years, struck me. The Prime Ministers
of the Netherlands and Luxembourg, presumably on behalf of the European Union,
visited Serbia (before going to Kosovo) for less than 24 hours. They were
received with the highest state-level honors, which by themselves were over-the-top
because neither of them is the head of state. In addition, during their super
short <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>visit to Belgrade, they found enough
time to have separate meetings with the representatives of the Serbian
opposition (sitting in the Parliament in Belgrade) who are currently demonstrating
in the streets, asking, in my opinion, quite legitimately for government’s much
more serious crackdown on violence and crime.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Notice how Prime Ministers of Western countries checking
things out with the domestic opposition seems like a normal news item. But
then, let’s unroll it. There is an official state-to-state visit, and the representatives
of the visiting state believe it was necessary to consult also the domestic opposition.
The first problem is whether it is appropriate to mix up state-to-state visit with
the rest of politics. When countries’ dignitaries visit each other, they do not
necessarily imply thereby that they agree with everything their hosts believe,
nor that they support the government which receives them. They are there to
talk about mutual economic and political interests with whatever government is
in control of that particular piece of land. When the new and different government
comes, they would be equally happy to speak with it. This is a simple and
normal rule of international politics.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Let’s go further. If it is okay for the Dutch and Luxembourgeois
Prime Ministers to talk to the Serbian opposition (while being there for twelve
hours), would it be acceptable if, in a return visit, the Serbian President met
with the Dutch and Luxembourgois oppositions? If you believe that there is no
reason for that because the Dutch and Luxembourgois opposition is not currently
protesting in the streets, could we then wonder if, on his next trip to France,
the President of Serbia could ask to meet with the “discontents” who are currently,
very obviously, protesting in the cities of France? Or with the opponents of
the pension reform? Or were he ever to visit the UK, could he alternatively
meet with the parliamentary and extra-parliamentary supporters of the Brexiters
and of the Remainers? </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The idea of the Serbian president asking officially to meet
with the French or even Luxembourgeois opposition strikes one as so fanciful
that it laughable. It is a joke. It would indeed be treated as such, were it
ever raised as a possibility. But like every joke, it tells us something about
the real world. It is that the relations between the states have become utterly
unequal. Unlike in the period 1960-1990 when the Third World and non-aligned
countries were strong and there was at least formally a recognition of equality
of states, and in the diplomatic sphere, acceptance of that formal equality, we
have moved to the medieval style of inter-state relations where power only matters--even
in its ceremonial aspects. No hiding of inequality, but rather its display: prostrate
yourself or kiss the edges of my purple robe! </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Inequality of power between the states is openly flaunted, and
many people, having become used to it during the past thirty years. take is as
normal. Because they have lost self-respect. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p>
<p></p>Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-56701297568418178362023-06-26T13:56:00.004-07:002023-06-26T14:13:22.083-07:00Athenian dialogues on global income inequality<p> <span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Glaucon (G).
Good day, Adeimantus. I have a good news for you. Perhaps you have already
heard that global inequality measured by the differences in real incomes
between people has decreased significantly during the past 30 years and this is
the first such big decline since the Industrial Revolution. </span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Adeimantus
(A). Good day to you too, Glaucon. I am extremely happy that this is happening.
This simply proves that capitalism works and that the critiques of neoliberal
policies were and are wrong.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">G. But you
know, Adeimantus, that most of the decline in global inequality is due to China
and that China did not exactly follow neoliberal policies over that period. Moreover
you have criticized China's policies of state capitalism many times. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A. Yes, I am
against Chinese policies and I think they are wrong policies.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">G. How can
they be wrong, Adeimantus, when you just cheered the decrease in global
inequality which was achieved mostly thanks to China? </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A. Difficult
question, but let us go back to the discussion of global inequality.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">G. Wait a
minute, Adeimantus. If China’s policies are so successful should not other
countries copy them? </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A. No, Glaucon
my friend, because I know China: China is going to exploit other countries
through unfavorable loans. They would not be able to repay them and will get
into the vicious circle of underdevelopment. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">G. But,
Adeimantus, was not the same argument made many times before by the left wing
critics of Western loans and which you also many times, here in the markets of
Athens, vehemently rejected?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A. Let me
say that I think that the situation is different today. I will give you a
precise answer later. But let’s go back to the convergence. I am glad that the
world is converging but it seems to me that you, Glaucon, are not at all
concerned that the lower parts of income distributions of the rich countries
have been going down in the global rankings.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">G. Sure,
Adeimantus. Them going down in the global pecking order is part and parcel of
convergence. If you do have convergence that means that some people who used to
have income lower than yours will now have income higher than yours, and will
thus get ahead of you. So, my dear Adeimantus, you cannot be in favor of global
convergence and also in favor of keeping the same people on the top. It is
mathematically impossible. If convergence is good then this global reshuffling
in incomes is also good.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A. But
politically how am I going to explain that the entire distribution of my
country is no longer number one, that we are not among the top decile or even top
quintile? That creates lots of problems for us domestically because the middle
classes feel much poorer, relative to the rest of the world, even if their real
incomes may still go up. One of the famous writers produced by the island of Britannia,
Paul Collier, pines in his book “The future of capitalism” for the time when
the British worker could stride the world, standing tall and proud because he
was richer than many other people.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">G. If he was
richer than many other people that means that many other people were poorer
than him and these people probably did not like that situation. So now they
like the idea of catching up and actually perhaps even being a bit richer than
Paul’s Britanian worker. Moreover why should the Britanian or any other worker
remain in that top position forever? </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A. Because
it is very difficult for us to explain it to the population.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">G. I
understand that, my dear Adeimantus. But this is your political problem. This
is not a problem that somebody who cares about global equality and global social
mobility is concerned with. From the global point of view, we must treat
everybody the same. But let me ask you this: you are, I know that, in favor of
social mobility in your own country. You want everybody to have the same chance
to succeed. Why should not be there social mobility at the level of the world?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>What is different there for you to feel bad
about social mobility and reshuffling of income positions in the world? If so,
should you then be arguing that similar reshuffling must not take place at the
national level either? Should you not argue that all people who used to be rich
remain rich? If rich countries have to stay at the same positions in the world,
why should not rich families stay at the same position within countries? </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">A. The ships
are coming at noon. I have to bid you farewell now. Let’s continue this
discussion tomorrow.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">Here comes
Thrasymachus (T).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">T. Hello,
Glaucon. I am a bit upset wit you. You have made a big deal of that fact that
global inequality measured in relative terms (my income as a fraction of yours)
has gone down. But I do not care about that. If we look at the absolute
differences in income between people they have gone up. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">G. Yes, Thrasymachus,
there is no doubt that you are right but this is the case whenever overall real
income and real income of individual people increase. Differences in absolute
terms go up even if relative differences stay the same or go down. This is like
when you take a balloon and draw by pencil different points on the balloon, and
then blow the balloon up: what happens? While the relative distances remain the
same (or in the case of convergence even go down) the absolute distances
between the points on a bigger balloon become greater. But this is okay because
the balloon (the world GDP) is greater.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">T. But maybe
I am a stubborn guy and I just care about the absolute distances and not about
relative distances. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">G. OK, Thrasymachus,
but then you have to be consistent: absolute distances for example in the US in
1860 were severalfold less than absolute distances today. The reason is simply
that US GDP per capita was less than one-tenth of its level today and when you
look at the distance between any given percentile in the income distribution
versus another then and compare those distances to what they are today, they
were then very small. (And I am using here incomes that are all corrected for
the difference in the price levels and are expressed in current dollars.) But
you would not be saying, Thrasymachus, would you, that inequality in a much poorer
America with 13% of its population in slavery was much, much lower than
inequality today? Would you defend that?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">T: Probably
not, but let’s go to the global level. Your convergence is mostly driven by
China. So other countries have not really converged on Western incomes and
Africa certainly did not. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">G. Yes, this
is a good point. China is really driving the convergence and Africa is
remaining equally poor or even the distance between Africa and the rich world
is increasing.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">T. So I am right
to claim that the neoliberal order has actually increased inequality between
the countries and people and you get reduced inequality only if China is included.
Thus the gap between the core and the periphery is just getting worse. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">G. This is
not exactly true Thrasymachus because even if China is excluded the global
inequality does go down although by significantly less. But then if you expel
China from the “developing world” or the periphery because it has become rich,
are you not permanently changing your definition of the periphery? Whoever is
successful get “expelled” from the periphery, and by that logic there could
almost never be a convergence because there would be always some poor countries
that would not converge. If India converges tomorrow, you would exclude it too;
if Indonesia and Vietnam, and then Bangladesh, come next you would drop them
too. So you can never have convergence by definition since every country that converges
will be kicked out of your comparison.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;">T. Glaucon,
you make many arguments full of bad sophistry, but although I cannot rebut you
know, I will think a bit and come with a decisive proof that what you say
cannot be right. </span></p>
<p></p>Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-62491426866717963892023-06-25T20:21:00.001-07:002023-06-25T20:21:11.048-07:00State capitalism one hundred years ago and today<p> <span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">A</span></span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> few days ago I re-read the book of Lenin's
final years’ speeches and letters. The book covers the years 1922 and 1923 (Lenin
died in January 1924). I grabbed the book simply because I saw it on my shelf
and having read it probably twenty years ago I could not remember exactly what
was there, and thought, as I was proof-reading the section on inequality in socialism
in my forthcoming “Visions of inequality”, that there could be something in the
Lenin book that might be relevant for my chapter. In reality, there was nothing.
</span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">But there were several topics that
have not lost their relevance even 100 years later. There are at least two that
are very relevant today: Lenin's views on the New Economic Policy (NEP) and state
capitalism, and his views on the nationality problem during the process of the
creation of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. (Even the name was still
debated: Lenin writes of the Union of Soviet Republics of Europe and Asia.) I
will discuss the first topic only.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">In a very long speech (which takes 50
closely printed pages) to the 11th Congress of Russian Communist Party in 1922 Lenin
summarizes the results of the first 18 months of the New Economic Policy. (I also
use his speeches to the Comintern Congress in 1922 and to the Moscow Soviet the
same year.) <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>He presents NEP as a
necessary retreat from the construction of socialism. Why was the retreat needed?
First, In order to restore the links with the small-holding peasantry who
during the War Communism curtailed their output as there was nothing to exchange
it for (as the industrial production plummeted), and second, to learn how to manage
the economy. “Learn from capitalists” could have been the key slogan of the
NEP. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Lenin argues that Communists, having
studied ideology and the technique of political struggle, simply do not know
how to manage the economy: “Communists do not know how to run the economy… they
are inferior to the ordinary capitalist salesmen who have received their
training in… big firms” (p. 35); “we must organize things in such a way as to
make possible the customary operation of capitalist economy...because this is essential
for the people”<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>(p. 41). It was not part
of Communists’ tool-kit. They have gained political power but they do not know
how to use it to make the economy work. They are utterly bureaucratic and thus they
mismanage the economy. (Lenin has a ten-page “excursus” on how complicated it
was to buy canned food when hunger reigned in Moscow because different Soviet
bureaucratic bodies could not agree among themselves. Finally the issue came to
the Politburo and it was decided there. Lenin exclaims: “But Kamenev [the
Politburo member} cannot be dragged into every transaction, dragged into the
business of buying canned food from a French citizen”, p. 57). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">But he fails to recognize, and
perhaps it was difficult to recognize at that time, that the problem was not just
learning how to manage large enterprises but that there was a problem of
incentives. It was not that the Communists were necessarily worse in management
skills than capitalists. The problem was that the incentive structure is very
different for a bureaucrat or a manager who runs a large state-owned company
from the incentive structure faced by an individual capitalist. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">For Lenin, however, the problem lied
in lack of knowledge of management: he would have loved MBAs and mentions as a
very positive development, the creation of a similar institute in Moscow and
the role of the journal Ekonomicheskaya Zhizh as somewhat of a Soviet Forbes
(in today’s terms, obviously). The problem, Lenin believed, could be remedied
by working alongside capitalists in the so-called mixed enterprises created by
the state, and Russian and foreign capitalists (14 of them existed at the time
of Lenin’s 1922 speech) and by imitating capitalists’ skills. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">NEP is a learning experience; once
Communist cadres have learned how to do business, and run the economy, NEP can
be shut down (“state capitalism is capitalism that we shall be able to
restrain, and the limits of which we shall be able to fix”, p. 40). The
justification of the NEP is thus that while it is a retreat from the ideals of socialism
it is a temporary retreat and after its objectives have been achieved, future
advances will be much more powerful because better organized and sustainable. And
the country would be richer.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">In that context, Lenin discusses state
capitalism. He makes a <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>distinction
between (a) state capitalism under capitalist conditions, and (b) state
capitalism under socialist conditions. He rejects the view that the two of them
are the same, and he criticizes Bukharin who wrote that the term “state
capitalism” under socialism is a logical absurdity. In Lenin’s view (a) is when
the state, ruled by the capitalist class, takes over some of the private-sector
functions while the substantial part of the economy remains capitalist. And
there is (b), state capitalism where the state is controlled by the Party and
the proletariat, and allows capitalists to function in order to boost
productivity and to learn management skills from them. So state capitalism
under socialism, according to Lenin, is entirely different, in the political sense,
from state capitalism under capitalism. The political power is not vested in
the hands of the capitalist elite and this enables Communist rulers whenever
they decide to do so to curtail capitalists’ involvement in the economy. The
power remains solidly with the party. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">This last point is very relevant for
the understanding of the Chinese approach to state capitalism today. </span><a href="https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/the-long-nep-china-and-xi"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">As I have argued before</span></a><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">, we can see the current Chinese
state capitalism as a protracted NEP that began in 1978 and continues until
today. But Lenin seems to overlook the possibility that with a very long NEP
the economic and political power will<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>gradually seep from under the Party and the very nature of the state would
change. Those who have money will dictate things as in capitalist countries. The
state may not be able to control them and the commanding heights of the economy
may change ownership. This happened under Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao: the
development of state capitalism under socialist conditions led to the increasing
influence of rich people and capitalists, including their inclusion in most of
the party organs, and through the idea of “The Three Represents”, it gave a pretense
of ideological acceptability to such evolution. The change in the elite
composition, evident in a </span><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-4446.12850?destination=/responsibility/ghg-emissions-reduction-scientific-rigour-and-stakeholder-engagement%3Fsort_by%3Dcreated%26field_topics_target_id%3DAll%26page%3D1&field_topics_target_id=All&sort_by=created&page=2&destination=/responsibility/ghg-emissions-reduction-scientific-rigour-and-stakeholder-engagement%3Fsort_by%3Dcreated%26field_topics_target_id%3DAll%26page%3D1&field_topics_target_id=All&sort_by=created&page=1&destination=/responsibility/ghg-emissions-reduction-scientific-rigour-and-stakeholder-engagement%3Fsort_by%3Dcreated%26field_topics_target_id%3DAll%26page%3D1"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">study done by Li Yang, Filip Novokmet
and myself</span></a><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">, is
another product of such policies. The social structure of the Chinese elite had
enormously evolved between the late 1980s and 2013 (when our study ends). <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>While the private sector was marginal among the
elite (the top 5 percent) in 1988, twenty-five year later almost one-third of
the people in the elite were private businessmen (owners of small enterprises
and large scale capitalists). If one includes professionals who are employed in
the private sector, a bit over one-half of the elite is private-sector
dependent. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">It is in this context that one can look
at Xi Jinping’s policies: as an attempt at the reassertion of the power of the
state vs. the capitalist sector and the rich. Or to use Lenin’s distinction
between the two, as an attempt to move from state <i><u>capitalism</u></i> to <i><u>state</u></i>
capitalism. It is an adjustment in the political power between the two sectors:
the state, ruled by a bureaucratic stratum, and the rich. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It represents the analog of the populist
reaction in the Western democracies: the feeling that the business elite has
become too powerful,<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>has no discernible
interest in the problems of ordinary people, and has to be reined in. We can
thus see Xi Jinping as both a heir to Lenin’s New Economic Policy and in much
more contemporary terms as a populist response to the excesses of the new
rich.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p></p>Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-69295801385405536682023-06-05T15:26:00.001-07:002023-06-05T15:26:45.683-07:00America’s Adam Smith: A review of Glory M. Liu’s “Adam Smith’s America”<p> <span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><span> </span><span> </span><span style="font-size: large;">T</span>his is an excellent book. The objective
of Glory Liu is to describe how the reception of Adam Smith in America has
changed over the past two hundred years, and, using Adam Smith to some extent
as a foil, to describe the changes in the intellectual climate and even in political
economy over that period. That Adam Smith is an ideal person, in whose “reception”
and in whose discussion, will be reflected broader intellectual trends is obvious.
Smith’s work is well known, respected by his admirers and detractors, and covers
vast areas going from moral philosophy and jurisprudence to political economy
and even astronomy. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>It is thus an ideal object
to refract political and ideological trends.</span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">One could divide the reception of
Smith in America into three eras. The first that lasted from Independence until
the early 20<sup>th</sup> century was dominated by the discussion of free trade
vs. protectionism in the <i>Wealth of Nations</i>. The second, from the early
to the mid 20<sup>th</sup> century by the debate on the roles played in Smith’s
overall work by sympathy vs. self-interest. The third, which continues, was
dominated by the disagreement over the roles of the price system (free market) and
government. As these antinomies illustrate, the broadness of Smith’s oeuvre allowed
a sensible discussion of all the themes, and made each of the six positions
defensible. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">In fact, it could be said that whenever
there was an important economic issue in America on which two sides were
formed, Smith always played an important part in debate because each side
could, some with justification, bring Smith’s views to their support. This may
be due to some internal inconsistencies in Smith (especially if one includes <i>The
Theory of Moral Sentiments and Lectures on Jurisprudence </i>too, and not only <i>The
Wealth of Nations</i>), but the more important reason is that Smith’s work
always had a pragmatic and eclectic character. Absence of dogmatism allowed him
to take nuanced positions and then these different nuances provided the <i>mat</i></span><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">é</span></i><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">riel</span></i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> with which the two sides attacked each other. For example, even in the
case of free trade that Smith, according to all readings, strongly championed, he
nevertheless extolled the Act of Navigation. Why? “As defence, however, is of
much more importance than opulence, the act of navigation is, perhaps, the
wisest of all the commercial regulations of England” (<i>WoN</i>, Ch 2). </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Liu fails, in my opinion, to acknowledge
sufficiently that there never was nor there will be a “real” or “true” Smith: our
readings of Smith will always be colored by what is the issue at hand, by our interests,
location and time (as the book indeed shows). Moreover, the way that people
come to Smith, precisely because his work is so vast and he influenced many,
are diverse. I came to Smith through Marx. That particular channel played no
role in the American intellectual discourse but illustrates the spread of Smith’s
influence. My original Smith was the one of the stadial theory of development,
labor theory of value, definition of the three key classes in capitalism, their
conflict over the distribution of the net product, and the dumbing effect of the
division of labor. Do these themes remind you of somebody else? They do. Is
this the entire Smith? No. But this is nevertheless the Smith that was, at one
point of time and location, of interest.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Similarly, the Smith argued about in
the early decades of the US Republic was the one of free trade. Although there
was a ritualistic invocation of Smith’s name by many Founding Fathers (there
are in the book the quotes from Jefferson, Hamilton, Adams etc.), his policy prescriptions
were ignored. The young Republic, under Hamilton’s impulse, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>went for protectionism. As Liu shows, it was Friedrich
List, whose ideas developed while he lived in the United States, that was much
more influential. Even in terms of textbooks, Smith’s <i>Wealth of Nations</i>
was eclipsed by the translation of Jean Baptiste Say’s <i>Treatise</i> (first published
in French in 1803; American translation in 1821). </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">There are ironies aplenty in the use
of Smith during that period. The strongest supporters of free trade were, as is
well known, the Southerners. They liked Smith’s stance on free trade, but disliked
his condemnation of slavery. The very opposite was true for Northern
intellectuals and industrialists. Moreover, once we take free trade/protections,
and slavery/abolitionism as political positions, we have four quadrants that
will be filled by various people. Some, in the North, might agree on
abolitionism, but disagree on trade. As we see here clearly, every side took
from Smith what it found convenient, and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>questioned, or even simply ignored what it did not like.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">This becomes very clear in chapters 5
and 6 that are in my opinion the best, and that deal with the first and second
Chicago school. The Chicago school disregarded entirely Smith’s political
philosophy, considered the <i>TMS</i> an inferior work and decided the ignore
the whole second era of the discussion of Smith in America that revolved around
the contrast between the advocacy of sympathy in the <i>TMS</i> and an equally
strong advocacy of self-interest in the <i>WoN</i>. The Chicago school took
only the economic part. The older Chicago school (Frank Knight and Jacob Viner),
more sensibly saw Smith not only as a partisan of laissez-faire but also ready
to accept a limited role for government: “economics must be political economy”
as the chapter title says, quoting Frank Knight. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The second, and to us better known
and influential, Chicago school (George Stigler and Milton Friedman) continued
with the reductionism of Smith. Not only was he shorn of moral philosophy, his
work was now shorn of political economy as well. It became price theory. The
emphasis turned entirely to the informational role of prices, the invisible
hand, and (the ”granite” of) self-interest. Liu rightly emphasizes a very
narrow and reductionist view of Smith taken by the Chicago school. But going
back to my previous question: was this wrong? The answer is “No”. Was this the
entire Smith? The answer again is “No”. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Chicago’s
“filleting” of Smith may be disagreed with, but Chicago did not invent a new
Smith. It took key elements that were there, jettisoned the rest, and created a
Smith that it needed for its purposes. I do not think that it is an
illegitimate approach—simply because every ideological movement, when it needs
to “cloth” itself in earlier writers and to appropriate some of their aura,
must do it. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">All three elements of the Chicago school
that I mentioned here are extremely important and are present in Smith. But
many others, perhaps equally important, are present too, and they can be, no
less legitimately, taken and defended. The (slight) weakness of the book is, as
I mentioned, that it does not fully accept this point of view, and does not
realize that every description of reception of an influential author will
always be a story of intellectual development in <i>that</i> location and place.
The mirage of “recapturing” the real Adam Smith does float in the book,
especially in the beginning and the end. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The most recent (post-Chicago) period
is dominated by Irving Kristol and Gertrude Himmelfarb’s “reintegration” of Smith,
where <i>TMS</i> (that was earlier supposed to support a more benign, even socialistic,
interpretation of Smith) has now been repurposed for “bourgeois” virtues. The conservative
reinterpretation reunified the “two Smiths” but again at a cost of significant simplification,
and possibly misinterpretation. The discussion in the last Chapter (“Turning
Smith Back on the Present”) includes also discussion of some, in my opinion,
silly issues (namely whether Smith really thought that the metaphor of the invisible
hand was important or not), and strangely does not mention Amartya Sen’s important
contribution to a different reading of the <i>TMS</i> (and even its superiority
to the contractarian theories like Rawls’s).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: .5in;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Regarding the style, I would have one
minor complaint. Liu does not always wear her formidable scholarship lightly: the
book is, at times, swamped by quotations that are only tenuously related to the
subject-matter. Finally, the reader, or at least this reader, may get annoyed
by the excessive use of “[sic]”. There is no need to “sic” differences in
spelling between the English of Smith’s time and ours. The use of “sic” often
tends to convey the feeling of the author’s superiority both with respect to
the author<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>he or she is citing, and with
respect to the readers (who may not be, in the author’s view, sufficiently
aware of the problem). It must be used sparingly.</span></p>
<p></p>Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-82266769043341709072023-06-01T20:42:00.004-07:002023-06-01T21:09:19.769-07:00“Succession” and the end of the illusion of ethical capitalism<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"> <span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">W</span></span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">hat “Succession” serves us is the
end of the illusion of ethical capitalism. The issues are the same as they appeared
in the beginnings of the commercial society, and were discussed by Bernard Mandeville
and Adam Smith. The question was the following: can the unchecked use of what
are conventionally considered vices, namely passions for power and wealth, be
reconciled with the existence of an ethical society? Can a society that places
the acquisition of wealth on the pedestal, considers it the most desirable
social attribute, and regards the rich as worthy of emulation, be ethical? </span></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">It is important to make here the distinction
between an ethical society and a society where the acquisition of wealth takes
place within the legal rules. According to Hayek, speaking of “just” incomes
does not make sense (nor should ethics be at all involved in the judgment of
how market incomes are earned); what matters alone is whether the rules of the
game have been obeyed. But it does not mean that acquiring incomes while following
the rules of the game is sufficient to make a society moral. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Adam Smith, while criticizing what I
called in “The Visions of Inequality” the “really existing capitalism” and the
way that the wealth is made through enslavement of people, plunder, monopoly,
or raw exercise of politics still held the possibility open—in the background—that
a commercial society could be ethical. To be ethical it must minimize the use
of, and the ability to use, power. Power comes either through politically-mediated
ability to impose one's preferences or through the ability to order others, for
pay, to do what we wish. The use of power can be brought to minimum if there is
full competition so that actors cannot influence prices and conditions under
which they sell their goods. This rules out monopolies, oligopolies and economic
power derived from politics <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>But in
addition to the output markets, it is also important to minimize the exercise
of power within the companies. The companies, especially when they are large,
are hierarchical. When they are hierarchical the power of those on the low
levels becomes small and the power of those on the top proportionately increases.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Adam Smith’s “capitalistic ideal” that
would, I think, combine efficiency and agency would be realized in small
companies, either family-owned or with few employees, enabling the voice of the
employees to be heard, and reducing the power of the owners of capital, while competing
on a level playing field with hundreds of alike companies. The power would be dispersed
and the power of everyone would be kept in check by the similar power of
others. Such a society would never allow the “masters” to become powerful
enough to dictate political decisions. It would be thus politically equal too.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The problem is that the current capitalist
societies are anything but such small-scale “ethical capitalism.” Our world, on
the contrary, is a world of large corporations, monopolies, cutthroat
competition among such corporations as well as within the corporations
themselves, where workers have no right to make any decisions and influence the
process of production, and are thus alienated from it. It is the world of
extreme commodification and hierarchical relations. Hierarchical relations
within companies and hierarchical differences in power between the companies enable
the richest to assume a political role which makes the society resemble a
plutocracy. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The value of “Succession” is that it
shows us clearly <i>that </i>world, without committing a mistake of introducing
extremely immoral actors that break the law. The strength of the script lies in
that all the players work within the confines of legality without –for all
that—being either ethical or sympathetic. Everybody follows self-interest only,
exhibiting in the process large amounts of self-love, and being a stranger to any
moral considerations. Other than the need to stay within the law, or perhaps
more accurately, not to be found out to have broken the law, everything is
permitted.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Everybody lives in the world of moral
grayness. Moral grayness is so pervasive that it is impossible to distinguish among
the characters those who exhibit darker hues of moral turpitude from those who might
show some lighter nuances. This behavior is not limited to the professional
life but percolates into the family life. In “Succession” this is<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>obvious from the very beginning because the
issue is who will among the children succeed the father, and thus most of the
action takes place inside the family. Parents and children behave with respect
to each other the same way as they behave towards everybody else: their
employees, suppliers or investors. The commercialization and amoral behavior have
invaded the family life to such an extent that there is no longer any difference
between the family and the rest of the world. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>There is just unanimous moral greyness between
the characters, and between professional and private lives. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">This absence of behavioral difference
between the two spheres (the private and the professional) is something that would
have surprised Adam Smith. For his two big works “The Theory of Moral Sentiments”
and “The Wealth of Nations” were written to apply to two different spheres of
our existence. TMS deals with our relations within the family, with friends and
others who are relatively close to us, to what one may call the “organic
community”; WoN is supposed to apply to our relations within the Great Society,
that is with respect to, and in the intercourse with, everybody else. But in “Succession”
the two areas are no longer divided, they are both parts of the same commodified
world, and the same rules of amorality hold whether we are talking of families and
friends or people whom we have met once in our life. The main characters are
remarkably egalitarian in their treatment of people. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>You are as likely to please Shiv, Rom, and
Kendall if you are their closest cousin or if they have met you for the first time
ever. The greyness envelopes all.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36pt;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The incompatibility of a fully commercialized
society with an ethical society is a problem for those who, evidence to the
contrary, believe that capitalism can be successful and at the same time
ethical and who deceive themselves by inventing “stakeholder capitalism”, “responsible
business”, “ethically-produced coffee or textiles”, and the like. “Succession” disabuses
them of these notions. Rather cruelly. The similarity of behavior that we observe
on screen and in real life, and the moral bleakness of the characters, upsets this
naïve view. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In order to preserve the
fantasy of successful <i>and</i> ethical capitalism a very <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/26/arts/television/succession-finale.html">superficial
discussion of the series in The New York Times</a>, ignores all the issues mentioned
here and puts the accent on an entirely incidental feature, namely that the
company over whose ownership the children fight is a media company that
influences people through biased news. This however has nothing to do with the
main storyline which is the story of ethics and capitalism. Exactly the same
situation would have existed had the company been selling electricity like
Enron, <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>been involved in “packaged” mortgages
like hundreds of companies during the 2008 meltdown, was laundering money like
the Credit Suisse, was mistreating workers like Amazon, or used its monopoly
power like Microsoft. So whatever the company Logan Roy and his children had,
had nothing to do with the main message <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>of “Succession”. The main message was to disabuse
us of the notion that an advanced commodified society that for its success
depends on “disabling” conventional moral norms may be ethical. Or could be made
ethical if we were willing to tweak a thing or two. “Succession” says: you
cannot have both. </span></p>
<p></p>Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-89242645047993971562023-05-04T22:50:00.005-07:002023-05-04T22:52:13.388-07:00Capitalism unchained<p> <span style="font-size: large;"><span style="line-height: 150%;">K</span></span><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">rishnan Nayar makes three key points in his recently
published <i><a href="https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/liberal-capitalist-democracy/">Liberal
Capitalist Democracy: The God that Failed</a></i>. First, he argues that
bourgeois revolutions frequently failed to lead to democracy, a view strongly
embedded in the Anglo-American Whiggish history and in simplified Marxism.
Rather they provoked aristocratic reaction and the authoritarian economic
developments which in many respects were more successful than those of
bourgeois democracy. In other words, democracy does not come with capitalism
and, as we shall see, capitalism often destroys it. The authoritarian
modernizers (Nayar studies four: post-1848 Germany, Louis Napoleon’s
France, Bismarck’s Germany, and Stolypin’s Russia) enjoyed wide support
among the bourgeoisie who, fearful for its property, preferred to take the side
of the reforming aristocracy than to throw in its lot with the proletariat.
This indeed was one of the disappointments that surprised Marx and Engels in
1848-51, when they noticed that the propertied classes sided with Louis
Bonaparte rather than with the Parisian workers. </span>
</p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Second, Nayar argues that the unbridled Darwinian capitalism
always leads to social instability and anomie, and that social instability
empowers right-wing parties. He thus argues that Hitler's rise to power was
made possible, or was even caused, by the 1928-32 Depression, and not as
some historians think by either the fear of communism or bad tactics of
the Communist Party which instead of allying itself with Social Democrats
fought them.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Third, and for the present time perhaps the most interesting,
Nayar argues that the success of Western capitalism in the period 1945-1980
cannot be explained without taking into account the pressure that came on
capitalism both from the existence of the Soviet Union as an alternative model
of society, and from strong left-wing parties linked with trade unions in major
European countries. In that sense the period of <i>les trente glorieuses</i>
which is now considered as the most successful period of capitalism ever
occurred <i>against</i> the normal capitalist tendencies. It was an anomaly. It
would not have happened without socialist pressure and fear of riots,
nationalizations, and, yes, defenestrations. But with the rise of neoliberal
economics after 1980 capitalism gladly went back to its original 19<sup>th</sup>
and early 20<sup>th </sup> century versions which regularly produce social
instability and strife.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The lesson to be taken from Nayar is in some ways simple.
Capitalism, if it's not embedded in society and does not accept limits on
what can be commodified, has to go through recurrent slumps and prosperities.
But these two cannot be seen just as a plus and a minus that cancel each
other out. Their political effects are very different. And this is where
Nayar takes to task many economists who saw the 1920s Depression as a cleansing
period of capitalism eventually bound to result in a boom. The point is that
here we deal with real people and not mere numbers: many are unwilling to wait
until the boom comes; they may not even be around for its Coming. Thus
they vote for radical solutions or go out in the street. This is something that
is often forgotten by economists who treat individuals’ incomes over the
long-term as a mathematical summation without realizing that the political
effects of the minuses are very different from those of the pluses.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">If we look at the three main theses in Nayar’ s book
none of them is new. But they are when strung together and placed in their
historical context. The authoritarian modernizations have of course been
a subject of many books some of which, like <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Social-Origins-Dictatorship-Democracy-Peasant/dp/0807050733">Barrington
Moore’s classic</a>, are cited here. The rise of fascism was, and is,
increasingly linked with austerity policies as was recently done by Mark
Blyth’s <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Austerity-Mark-Blyth-audiobook/dp/B00I8VSZIC/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1X38FIBQ0O6KA&keywords=mark+blyth+austerity&qid=1683168716&s=books&sprefix=mark+blyth+austerity%2Cstripbooks%2C83&sr=1-1">Austerity:
History of a Dangerous Idea</a> and Clara Mattei’s <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Order-Economists-Invented-Austerity/dp/022681839X/ref=sr_1_2?crid=3Q3JQG7V8QL88&keywords=clara+mattei&qid=1683168794&s=books&sprefix=clara+mattei%2Cstripbooks%2C79&sr=1-2">The
Capital Order: How Economists Invented Austerity and Paved the Way to Fascism</a>.
Nayar may perhaps be overstating his case by claiming that many historians such
Ian Kershaw and Joachim Fest tend to ignore the economic causes of the rise of
Nazism because they take capitalist economy as given. This could be true for
some contemporary observers like Churchill as well as Keynes who seems to have
been oblivious to the political effects of the crisis until comparatively late,
but more serious historians do acknowledge a huge impact of depression. It is
indeed hard not to do so when Germany's GDP declined by one-fifth, and more
than one-quarter of its labor force were unemployed.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">However there is a more subtle argument in Nayar which deals
with the position of the Communist and Social Democratic parties in Germany.
Unlike many historians who blame Stalin for the decision to direct KPD’s
animus not towards fascists but towards those whom Stalin called “social
fascists”, meaning SPD, Nayar thinks that the collaboration between the
two parties was impossible given their different constituencies and positions
within the Weimar system. SPD was strongly embedded in the Weimar system. It
participated in the austerity policies, supported spending cuts and the
balanced budget, and was involved in the decision not to extend unemployment
benefits which triggered yet another fall of government and the elections that
finally brought Nazis to power (thanks of course too to the behind-the-scene
machinations of von Papen and Hindenburg’s son). KPD, on the other hand,
had its ranks swelled by the unemployed, that is, by the same people whom
Social Democrat were driving into the street. It was impossible for the two
parties to collaborate, whatever Stalin wanted or not. For sure, the lack of
cooperation opened the way for Hitler but without knowing the future which of
course no participant in the political life can know, there is simply no way
that the two large left-wing parties could ever join forces.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Nayar’s third point about the indirect support that the communist
regimes and the left-wing parties provided to capitalism and capitalists, by
pushing them to reform the system and realize that without much stronger social
policies, they risk being overwhelmed by communist parties, is also a
point that is increasingly recognized. Here is the link to a very important <a href="https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64756/1/MPRA_paper_64756.pdf">empirical
paper by André Albaquerque Sant’Anna</a> that documents that the welfare
policies were more strongly developed in countries where either socialist or
communist parties were stronger or the threat of the Soviet Union was greater.
Nayar quotes a number of British politicians and intellectuals who make the
same point even if sometimes unaware of doing it. He rightly criticizes Tony
Judt, who, bizarrely, refused to accept it. </span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The Soviet experience and its international importance did
not play a role only in Western Europe; it did not play the role only in Italy
which had at one point one-third of its voting population support the Communist
Party, or in France where the share of the communists oscillated around 20%,
but also played an important role elsewhere, including in the beginnings of the
Dutch planning or Indian five-year plans. So there is I think no serious contest
on the matter. Nayar might pick on some historians who are singularly blind to
reality but the reasonable view is that the (much embellished) Soviet
experience did have a strong impact, indirectly promoting policies which would
never have happened otherwise and would have been discarded by the capitalist
class out-of-hand.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">In that part of the book Nayar is scathing about the
disconnect of the so-called Marxist intellectuals with reality in their own
countries and the world. He rightly ascribes that disconnect to inability to
accept that capitalism has been, even if reluctantly, accepted by the majority
of the population including by majority of workers, that real incomes had been
rising, and that the typical communist party’s role which saw itself as leading
the working class in an antagonistic relationship with bourgeoisie was
simply obsolete. Consequently, Marxist intellectuals became what Nayar calls
“intellectual playboys” without any discernible impact on politics. To us today
they appear, and they probably were at the time, laughable. Had they been
really interested in Marxism, and not in philosophizing for a few, had they
been interested in the topics that preoccupied Marx, Engels, Lenin, Trotsky,
Kautsky etc., and that had to do with the development of capitalism and lives
of normal people, they would have noticed changes that had occurred between
1945 and 1980. The size of the working class had declined, real incomes
have risen, the power of trade unions was vanishing, large companies no longer
exerted the role which they had in the past, and perhaps most importantly the
technological change became very different from the technological progress that
was known in the 19<sup>th</sup> and early 20<sup>th</sup> century. All these
developments simply escaped the attention of the (quasi) Marxist set mentioned
by Nayar: Sartre, Althusser, Marcuse. (To be fair, Nayar’s selection is itself
narrow, perhaps too much influenced by the Londonese (my coinage) and Parisian
salons. There were many on the left who saw these developments, but it is true
they were less popular among the <i>juventud rebelde</i> of the 1960s and
1970s than the people mentioned here.)</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">They missed the change in capitalism, but capitalists anyway
did not pay much attention to them. Neoliberalism felt emboldened by the internal
dynamics that marginalized the working class and then by the precipitous fall
of the Soviet Union and communism. Once capitalism was without a rival, it
promptly went back to its past policies, manifesting many of its worst features
that were forgotten during the <i>trente gloirieuses</i>. Marx, with his
critique of capitalism, now became much more our contemporary than the myriad
of other philosophers, Garton Ash, Ignatieff, Fukuyama <i>e tutti quanti</i>,
who oblivious of history’s lessons celebrated the triumph of capitalism in no
less unrealistic prose than Sartre and Marcuse reviled it forty years ago.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The question which is on everybody’s mind after having read
Nayar’s book is, What next? Because if capitalism continues along the current
trajectory that Nayar believes almost preordained, it must again produce
instability and rejection. And that would—again--play into the hands of right-
wing movements. We may replay a century later the same story that we have seen
in the 1920’s Europe. History seldom repeats itself word-by-word or
drum-by-drum: we are not going to see the black shirts or different-color
uniformed movements which inundated Europe in the ‘twenties but we might see,
as we already do, parties with roots in nationalist or quasi fascist movements
coming back to power and undoing globalization, fighting immigrants,
celebrating nationalism, cutting access to welfare benefits to those who
are not “native” enough. Is it fascism? Its light variety? This is the
melancholy conclusion that can be made based on this sweeping study of western
political and economic developments in the past two centuries.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The book is impressive in the amount of detail it marshals,
in Nayar’s erudition and his eye for the unusual and the absurd, and his
take-no-prisoner style. However, there are also limits: the book deals only
with West European countries, and only a select few of them (UK, France,
Germany), and just in one segment with Russian pre revolutionary developments.
It is also true that the selection of intellectuals that are targeted by
Nayar’s often acerbic, and in some cases savage or funny, commentary is limited
to the relatively small group of French and British intellectuals, sprinkled,
for a good measure, by a few Americans. The European intellectual scene
was much broader than the people who were mentioned in the book. The book also
does not deal with the rest of the world: Africa and the anti-colonial struggle
are not present at all; Latin America is entirely absent; India is just
mentioned in a few sentences; China is non-existent except for the Korean war.
So, it is a book that in its geographical, as well as ideological, scope, and
the selection of the people whom Nayar excoriates, is limited. Nevertheless,
taking these limits into account it deals in a very persuasive manner with a
critically important period in western political history and makes us rather
fearful of the future.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p>
<p></p>Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-70784809463815475622023-04-13T05:30:00.001-07:002023-04-13T05:30:07.555-07:00The chronicle of the revolutions foretold?<p><span style="font-size: x-large;"> <span style="line-height: 150%;">F</span></span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">or almost two decades, Peter Turchin has been involved, with
many colleagues and co-authors, in an epochal project: to figure out, using quantifiable
evidence, what are the forces that lead to the rise, and more importantly, to
the decline of nations, political turbulence and decay, and revolutions. This
has resulted in the creation of an enormous database (CrisisDB) covering
multitude of nations and empires over centuries, and several volumes of Turchin’s
writings (e.g., </span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Secular-Cycles-Peter-Turchin/dp/0691136963"><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Secular</span></i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> <i>Cycles</i></span></a><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> (with Sergey Nefedov), </span><a href="https://www.amazon.com/War-Peace-Rise-Fall-Empires/dp/0452288193"><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">War and Peace and War</span></i></a><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">; I have read the former, not the latter).</span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><a href="https://www.amazon.com/End-Times-Counter-Elites-Political-Disintegration/dp/B0BJ197329/ref=sr_1_1?crid=3CVZQCOCSEOV&keywords=end+times+turchin&qid=1681386671&s=books&sprefix=end+times+turch%2Cstripbooks%2C345&sr=1-1"><i><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">End Times</span></i></a><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> is Turchin’s attempt to break what
he has learned from the complex work in the field (that he calls), Cliodynamics,
to the broader public. It is a work of “haute vulgarisation” even if the adjective
“haute” is sometimes inapplicable since, in his attempt to reach the broadest possible
audience, Turchin has at times stylistically gone much too low assuming almost
no prior knowledge amongst his readers. But this is a question of style.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">What is the substance? To simplify, in my turn: <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Turchin’s model of decay has one variable: inequality
in income or wealth. That variable which is often adduced as a source of
political discord is given a very concrete meaning by Turchin. (Here, I have to
mention the often uncomfortable personal experience when people keen to praise
my work on inequality would claim that it is important because high inequality leads
to social conflict, yet without either them or me being able to pinpoint exactly
how it does it. Now, Peter Turchin comes with an explanation).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Rising inequality means by definition that the median-income person
will fall further behind the mean-income person, and increasingly behind the
top 10% or the top 1 percent. The median-income person could be, as in today’s
United States (a county to whose analysis most of the book is dedicated), an insufficiently
credentialed manufacturing or service sector worker; or it could be a semi-skilled
laborer in the 19<sup>th</sup> century Great Britain, or a small landholder in
the 1830s France and 1850s Russia. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Thus,
precise occupation or class does not matter: income position does.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">What happens on the top of income distribution? Increased inequality
means, again by definition, that people at the top are getting richer compared
to the rest, or put differently, that the advantage of being in the top decile
or top percentile is increasing. This, as every economist knows, implies that
the “demand” for such top slots will go up. If the elite (the top decile or the
top percentile) is composed, as in today’s US, of executives, investment bankers,
corporate lawyers there will be an increasing attempt to study the most
lucrative fields and to adopt the type of behavior (including the beliefs) most
likely to lead to joining the elite. If more people do so than there are numbers
of elite positions, a game of empty chairs follows. Not everyone among the
aspiring elite will make it. The split in the elite, created by the disappointed
would-be elite fighting for top positions, comes next. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">In conditions where (a) the distance between the median and
the top goes up (what Turchin calls “immiseration” although it is important to
note that this is a relative immiseration; i.e., the median-income person can
in real terms become better off), and (b) there is elite overproduction, a pre-revolutionary
situation ensues.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Immiseration is not
enough. To produce a breakdown, we have to have different elites fighting each
other, with one of them enlisting the support of the “people” (or others) in
order to win. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Even passing knowledge of the backgrounds of the most important
revolutions in the modern era shows that Turchin’s simple model provides a good
fit. Take the French revolution: stagnation of income and recurrent famines
occurred simultaneously with a divided elite (aristocracy and part of the
clergy against the rising city merchant class); in Russia in 1917, it was one
part of aristocracy against another which lost its landholdings and wealth after
the abolition of serfdom and could not compensate it with well-paying state jobs.
(The statistic of the number of revolutionaries who were themselves, or their
families, the impoverished nobles is striking.) Or take the 1979 Iranian revolution:
the sidelined clergy against the bourgeois elite, which, like in the Russian
case, produced through its offspring the future revolutionaries. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The model fits well—almost too well—the current American
reality. The median person is the “deplorable” (to quote Hillary Clinton), a populist
(to quote the mainstream media), a Hillbilly (to quote J. D. Vance) or one of
the candidates for the deaths of despair (to quote Anne Case and Angus Deaton).
The disaffected, disenchanted American lower middle class has been studied extensively
after Trump came to power. The current elite, whom Turchin dissects in an almost
forensic manner, is composed of CEOs and board directors, large investors, corporate
lawyers, “policy-planning network”, and top elected officials (p. 203), that
is, of all those who have money and who use it to gain voice and power. (Not
unexpectedly, Turchin argues that the United States is a plutocracy that uses
the tools of the general right to vote as a way to legitimize its power). </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">But that elite is not monolithic. An aspiring elite (“credential
precariat”) has been constituted. It has failed so far to reach the top and has
ideologically defined itself in opposition to immigration, globalization, “woke”
ideology. Turchin argues that this aspiring or would-be elite is in the process
of taking over the Republican party and thus creating a political tool for an
effective intra-elite competition. This is, of course, resented by the ruling elite
that enjoyed an extraordinary good run between 1980 and 2008 as its view of the
world (neoliberal capitalism, “credentialism”, and identity politics) became espoused
by both mainstream parties. Turchin regards the present political struggle in
the US as the ruling class trying (desperately) to fend off an assault on its
ideology and, more importantly, on its economic position, by an aspiring elite that
is enlisting the support of the disaffected middle class.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">It seems to be a battle of epic proportions. Many of the pre-revolutionary
signs are there: dysfunctional political system, strong interparty splits, lack
of political representation for the outsiders. Turchin approvingly quotes the seminal
empirical work by </span><a href="https://academic.oup.com/qje/article/137/1/1/6383014"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Amory Gethin, Clara Martinez Toledano
and Thomas Piketty</span></a><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">
arguing that in all Western democracies, the left-wing or social-democratic parties
have become parties of </span><span lang="en-AT" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: #0C00;">the </span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">educated credential elites, while the working and middle
classes have lost </span><span lang="en-AT" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: #0C00;">their </span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">influence and even representation. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Turchin is agnostic—as one should be—regarding what the
outcome of the American political crisis will be. The American political system
has shown itself to be extraordinary flexible and able to withstand serious shocks.
In some ways, one could even think that Trump’s various conscious and unconscious
“subversions” redounded precisely to the advantage of the system because they
showed system’s resilience even when the President tried to “overthrow” it. But
on the other hand, deep incomprehension and lack of interest in the other
side’s view is precisely one of these characteristics of pre-revolutionary times
and the US has plenty of </span><span lang="en-AT" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: #0C00;">evidence </span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">of this. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Turchin’s model applies to China (not discussed in the book)
probably as well as to America. The relative immiseration of the median class
has gone on for the past forty years. Indeed, it went hand-in-hand with its phenomenal
increase in material well-being, to the clip of almost 10% per year, and is
thus less noticeable. At the top end of the distribution, the
political/administrative class that has historically ruled China is opposed,
still very cautiously, by the rising capitalist/merchant class.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>In a paper by </span><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1468-4446.12850"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Yang, Novokmet and Milanovic</span></a><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">, we have documented and analyzed probably
the most radical change —short of a revolution—in the composition of the elite
ever. That has occurred in China between 1988 and 2013. Economic growth has
displaced the administrative class in favor of those linked with the private
sector (capitalists).</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Turchin’s model of internal breakdown thus acquires a geopolitical
dimension. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>The struggle for global supremacy
between the US and China can then be visualized as the question of whose political
system will crack first. If China’s does, it will have to scale down its
foreign ambitions, and accept the role of a subaltern power (to the United
States) even in Asia. If the American political system collapses first, the US would
move toward isolationism and would have to acquiesce into Chinese rising power
in Asia, thus losing controlling power in the most dynamic part of the world. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Will Turchin’s model’s predictions </span><span lang="en-AT" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: #0C00;">turn</span><span lang="en-AT" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span><span lang="en-AT" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: #0C00;">out to </span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">be correct? We do not know, but I
think, it is important to focus on the logic of the mechanism proposed by Turchin
and to see the next couple of decades as a period of difficulties rather than
to think, as some people who popularized Turchin’s </span><span lang="en-AT" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: #0C00;">views </span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">did in the Summer of 2020, that
social processes can be predicted with a precision of movement of celestial
bodies. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Turchin’s is a fascinating thesis worth reading</span><span lang="en-AT" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: #0C00;">
about</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">, and then either witnessing
the chronicle how it unfolds, or perhaps participating in bringing about the </span><span lang="en-AT" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: #0C00;">outcome
</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">or sta</span><span lang="en-AT" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: #0C00;">ving
</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">it off —because Turchin </span><span lang="en-AT" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: #0C00;">does
</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">show that there the
cases when the elite foresight and well-understood </span><span lang="en-AT" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: #0C00;">self</span><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">-interest enabled it to ride off the
times of troubles. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><span lang="en-AT" style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ansi-language: #0C00;"></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"> </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></p>
<p></p>Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-90441981889474311642023-03-05T20:27:00.002-08:002023-03-05T20:28:59.514-08:00On charisma and greyness under communism <p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Bullet 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Number 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Closing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="List Continue 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Message Header"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Salutation"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Date"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text First Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Body Text Indent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Block Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Hyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="FollowedHyperlink"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Document Map"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
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</p><p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: large;">S</span>everal
years ago in a conversation about politics and history, a friend asked me
something about the durability of Tito’s regime in Yugoslavia (35 years). I
cannot remember what was my answer, but I remember that he summarized it by
saying that Tito must have been a charismatic leader. That statement struck me
as odd. My friend lived in Argentina for a decade or more, and I thought that
perhaps it came naturally to him to associate the long rule and popularity of
leaders to their “charisma”. Yet, as far as Tito was concerned, no
one could claim that he was a charismatic leader. Towards the end of his life,
he was quite popular, liked by most, even adored by many—but “charismatic”:
never.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">That
led me to think about the absence of charismatic figures among the second
generation of communist leaders. For sure, communists had some charismatic
leaders: Trotsky, partly Lenin, and surely Fidel Castro (but not Raul) come to
mind. Even Mao—although I would like to treat him separately. But nobody else.
Stalin was certainly not a charismatic leaders. Nor were the leaders whom I
remember well from my youth: Todor Zhivkov, János Kádár, Gustav Husak, Walter
Ulbricht, Władysław Gomułka were the greyest shade of grey. There is no crowd
where they would stand out. Rather, they seem to have cultivated the desire for
greyness and “averageness”. Others were not much better. Khrushchev was
mercurial and often unpredictable, but not charismatic. And Brezhnev. Kosygin,
Andropov, Chernenko were of the same grey-greyness variety. Jaruzelski stood
out a bit, but this was because he was an unusually-looking communist leader: a
military man with dark glasses. He looked more like an East European Pinochet
than a communist leader. Ceauşescu was more known because of his independent
foreign policies and crazy domestic policies, but he too was far from
charismatic—as we can easily ascertain by watching his much replayed last
speech at the Victoria square in Bucharest.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">An
easy answer to this absence of charisma or individuality is to point out that
all post-revolutionary communist leaders were men of the “apparat”: skillful in
bureaucratic machinations and back-room maneuvering. They did not need to
appeal to the population, run in elections, gather votes. And bureaucratic
organizations prefer greyish technocrats like Kosygin and Kadar, or just grey
people in general with no individuality (like the rest of the characters
mentioned above). Reading recently David Halberstam’s “The
best and the brightest”, I thought: was not McNamara, the man of the system,
the same greyish-grey?; even if he was in certain intellectual ways probably
more impressive than some on this list of communist “apparatchiks”.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Nonetheless,
this bureaucratic explanation is neither sufficient not fully convincing. I
think that there was another ideological explanation. When a friend mentioned
Tito’s presumed charisma, I felt like correcting him, by saying that for
communists charisma was never an ideologically desired property. No true
communist leader would explain his popularity or longevity by “charisma”.
“Charisma” and individual popularity were bourgeois inventions, good for
class-based societies. Communist leaders were tools, playthings of history;
individuals who just embodied the historical Geist. Thus ideally, and I think
that this is a correct ideological frame within which to place their
“greyness”, they as persons did not matter. What mattered was being on the
right side of History and doing what the Party commanded. Every individualism,
and even more so every flamboyant individualism, was suspicious. (My cousin who
was a perfect Party man, scrupulously honest and dedicated, would never answer
any personal questions directly: asked what are his plans regarding his
work and life, he would invariably –and honestly—reply: “I have none. It will
be as the comrades decide.”)</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The
submission of individuality meant of course no place for charisma. This seems
at first strange because some of these leaders—Stalin in particular, but also
Tito, Enver Hoxha and Mao—enjoyed and encouraged a cult of personality but
without claiming any charisma. History spoke through them.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Communist
ideology was, fundamentally, an ideology of ordinary, working-class men and
women. It was an ideology of masses. It thus frowned upon all displays of
individualism and even favored an esthetic of ordinariness, of utilitarianism,
of non-standing out in the crowd. Greyness of the leaders was exactly how
ideologically the leaders should be: not any different from you and me, dressed
in grey or brown, wearing dark shoes with thick soles, speaking softly,
boringly and for a long time in a mixture of Marxist and economistic jargon
that would put most listeners to sleep. </span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The
point was to be “the average man”.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">There
was a distinct communist aesthetic of greyness and drabness, derived from the
ideology of “averageness” and levelling, where what may be judged as colorless
and dull was precisely what was sought. Every aesthetic is deeply subjective.
There is no reason to believe that an aesthetic of grey, dusty colors is
inferior to the aesthetic of a rainbow. What is often ridiculed or criticized
as lack of elegance or aesthetics in leaders, clothing, apartment buildings,
and perhaps art in general is the application of foreign (to communist
ideology) aesthetic criteria. The conventional ugliness of communist
constructions was not a defect. It was something that was desired. It was an
alternative aesthetic where nothing would ever stand out. The grey
leaders were beautiful—on their own terms.</span></p>
<p></p>Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-45830278973185474962023-02-27T21:29:00.004-08:002023-02-27T21:29:44.087-08:00Capitalists, the state and globalization<p> <span style="color: windowtext; font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span> </span><span> </span><span> </span>“The tendency to create the world market is
directly given in a concept of capital itself. Every limit appears as a barrier
to be overcome…In accord with this tendency, capital drives beyond national
barriers and prejudices as much as beyond nature worship, as well as all
traditional, confined, complacent…reproductions of old ways of life. It is
destructive towards all of this, and constantly revolutionizes it, tearing down
all the barriers which hem in the development of the forces of production, the
expansion of needs…” etc. (<i>Grundrisse</i>).</span><span style="font-family: "Calibri",sans-serif; font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"></span>
</p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>This
is how Karl Marx saw globalization as an inseparable part of capitalists’ interests
and drive. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nothing has changed in 180 years
since the passage was written to make us believe that the behavior and the incentives
of capitalists are different today. So is the continuation of “high globalization”
that began with the opening of China and the fall of communism in the Soviet
Union and Eastern Europe, simply a natural and unstoppable process of capitalism
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>breaking barriers of space, technology
and habits in search of profit? In our own time capitalism has expanded not
only geographically but also by creating new activities and new markets from
renting our flats to being paid for influencing other people’s buying decisions
or selling one’s name as a trademark. How can we then understand that the
quintessential capitalist country like the United States might decide to opt
out of globalization or at least to restrict its further advance? </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">We can explain it, I think, only by
bringing two other “players” in addition to the one highlighted by Marx. First,
we can bring in the state assuming that the state is to some extent<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>an autonomous actor, and<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that what it does is not entirely determined by
capitalists’ interests. It is a topic which has been discussed<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>for over a century and on which no consensus
has been reached. But if the state does have sufficient autonomy of action then
it can override, in some cases, the interests of capitalists. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">The second possibility is to allow
for the split within the capitalist class. Alongside what we may call “the cosmopolitan
capitalists” who have profited handsomely from globalization through
outsourcing of production, there may be what we might call “the military
capitalists”, i.e. that part of the capitalist class directly linked with the
“security” sector, procurement of weapons and replacement of technologically
suspicious imports from unfriendly countries. The removal of every Kaspersky
anti-virus protection software and every Chinese-made CCTV camera benefits somebody
who would produce a substitute. They do have incentive to support a more
bellicose policy and thus to question globalization.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">But military capitalists labor under
two important handicaps. They are very unusual capitalists in the sense that
their profits depend on state expenditures which in turn require high taxes. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So in principle they have to be in favor of
high taxation in order to fund <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>government expenses on defense. They might benefit
on balance, but the preference for high spending and taxes puts them at odds
with other capitalists. The second problem is that by restraining globalization
they work against a force responsible for lower increase in nominal wages,
namely cheaper wage goods imported from Asia. For perhaps that the greatest contribution
of China and the rest of Asia was not the direct one (higher profits from
investments), but the indirect one: allowing Western real wages to rise, albeit
modestly, but shifting the distribution in favor of capital. This is what has
happened over the last thirty years in the US and other advanced economies and goes
under the rubric of the decoupling between productivity and real wage growth:
it is just another way to say that the labor share has gone down. The labor
share has gone down without reducing real wage thanks to the fact that wage
goods themselves have become cheaper. This was a huge boon to both cosmopolitan
and military capitalists. If <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>globalization is overturned, that benefit will
evaporate: nominal wage would have to go up even if the real wage is constant,
and the profit share in GDP will be reduced. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;">Thus military capitalists face two
problems: they need to argue for higher taxation and implicitly in favor of
reduction of capital incomes. Neither is popular. However the success cannot be
ruled out. An alliance may be formed between the military capitalists and the
hawkish part of the semi-autonomous state. They may be wiling to accept such “costs”
if they enable the US to curb <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>China’s
rise. The pure geopolitics would dominate economic interest. Historical
experience helps such an alliance too: US has won all big wars (the First, the
Second, and the Cold) and every time its victory has led it to the peak of
geopolitical and economic power. Why should not that happen again?</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; text-indent: 36.0pt;"><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>This is how we should regard the future of
globalization, at least from the point of view of the western calculation: as a
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>trade-off between unconstrained
geopolitical power and higher real domestic incomes. The economic arguments as
well as the usual (and at times perhaps facile) assumption that the state does
what capitalists want it to do overwhelmingly point in favor of continued globalization.
Yet the “bellic alliance” may be just sufficiently strong to keep the other
side in check, if not to entirely overturn globalization and shift the country towards
autarky. </span></p>
<p></p>Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-16927875005301858972023-02-22T19:19:00.003-08:002023-02-22T19:21:20.909-08:00The comprador intelligentsia<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: large;">I</span>n “Orientalism”, Edward Said spoke of an orientalist as an
interpreter of local custom and knowledge to the foreign intellectual. A common
term in neo-Marxist literature of the 1960-80, for the absence of articulation
between the domestic areas that interacted with the rest of the world, and the
hinterland that was cut off from it, was the comprador bourgeoisie. In the past
thirty years, the world might have created a “comprador intelligentsia” too. <br /></span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">What I have in mind here is the following. On the global
level, the West is unquestionably the creator of most of knowledge. Its only
two significant competitors are China and Islam. However, it still dominates,
economically as well as in its readiness to spread its knowledge and to
influence what is produced elsewhere. Sometimes out of best intentions,
sometimes out of ignorance, and sometimes out of ulterior motives, a number of
academic, non-governmental, quasi-governmental, and fully governmental,
associations have been created with that objective in mind. </span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">These institutions tend to finance the projects that deal
with the issues that are currently considered important or fashionable in the
Center. They could hardly justify doing otherwise to their donors who are
not interested in whether such topics are of relevance in the “faraway
countries of which we know nothing”. The projects, or more exactly, the funding
which comes with them, create a small local elite, the comprador
intelligentsia. The elite becomes very savvy in packaging and presenting the
results of the research so that they appeal to the Western funders. The
problem, however, is that the comprador intelligentsia—being focused on
pleasing the donors—is often cut off from the domestic intellectual life. Like
the comprador bourgeoisie it has very few links with the “hinterland”: it
exists purely thanks to the foreign donors. Once the foreign donors move
somewhere else, the comprador intelligentsia disappears. (If the donors move to
another topic, the comprador intelligentsia will move with them to the new
topic too.)</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Intellectual activity which is largely unrelated to the real
issues in a given place and time, and responds to the epistemic desires of an
entirely different place is meaningless. It leaves hardly any trace
domestically. It does permit the country to remain within some vaguely defined
orbit of international knowledge-creation, but the motivating forces of this
knowledge-generation are entirely external. They produce little domestically,
other than allowing the comparator intelligentsia a nice life of intellectual
and material comfort.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Such phenomena are seen in all peripheral societies where
financial resources to fund research are meager, and the intellectual class
needs to survive. I have seen it, in rather technical matters, too. Until about
ten years ago, statistical agencies in many African countries were very weak,
both in terms of personnel and money. They could not organize household surveys
that have been routine in the rest of the world. Thus very little such
information existed. What did the foreign donors do? They each, responding to
their temporary interests or whims of their bosses, funded a study of this or
that area, or of this or that population. Thus one got (e.g. in Tanzania) most
disparate surveys, none of which could be combined in any time-series, and none
of which allowed to find out whether things were changing, improving or not.
The Swedes would fund surveys of poor rural households in area X, the US AID
would fund the survey of single mothers in Y, the British, not to be outdone,
will discover sudden interest in youth unemployment in Z. Domestic statistical
office will oblige—with indifference—because of need of money. The surveys will
be done, the reports written, and sent to the higher authorities in Stockholm,
Washington and London. To be promptly forgotten there. And they would be
entirely ignored locally.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The same is happening with the so-called Randomized
Controlled Trials (RCT) which were crowned with the Nobel prize. In order to
proceed to many ethically questionable practices (on which much has been
written, see <a href="http://ras.org.in/randomise_this_on_poor_economics">Sanjay
Reddy</a>, Angus <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277953617307359">Deaton</a>,
<a href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w27554">Martin Ravallion</a>), domestic
support by few individuals is invented, in many cases probably in return for promises
of fees or foreign travel. When the <a href="https://www.devex.com/news/a-new-research-experiment-in-kenya-raises-questions-about-ethics-98039">RTC
project that subjected people in different parts of Nairobi</a> to arbitrary
water cuts led to the worldwide outcry, the Principal Investigator Paul
Gertler wrote a pathetic defense of the project by arguing that it had local
“purchase” through an ill-defined cooperation with local government: “<a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nVGR4qlhWt2EcNiy6d02By3e4kptVSer/view">through
joint discussions </a>between the World Bank and Nairobi Water teams, it was
agreed to additionally test a softer less potentially harmful nudge
[disconnection from water services!] as an alternative”. Even if one leaves out
the ethical problems of RCT (on which I am not focusing here), this is yet
another example of a foreign-funded project with no links to any creation of
useful domestic knowledge. Its only result—other than leaving poor people
without water--and perhaps the only objective to start with, is the personal
aggrandizement of the Center’s researchers. (One wonders if Kenyan researchers
could engage in a similar exploratory project by withholding RCT researchers’
salaries for several months to study how they would react.)</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%; margin: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Similarly to the comprador-driven domestic development which
never resulted in economic growth, the comprador-driven intellectual
development is sterile. It will continue to be produced because it supports the
ideological needs of the Center and the financial needs of the periphery, but
it will never have much influence in either: the Center thinks it has nothing
to learn from the periphery, and nobody in the periphery is much interested in
the topics given to the comprador intelligentsia as a homework to study.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%; margin-bottom: 0cm;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> </span></p>
<p></p>Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1595000878568137907.post-67944116870326652972023-02-10T19:20:00.003-08:002023-02-10T19:21:07.186-08:00Statistics as a philosophy and art<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" SemiHidden="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
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</p><p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: large;">T</span>he
statistical work during the first fifteen years of the People's Republic of
China can be usefully, if somewhat simplistically, divided into three periods
as the <a href="https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691179476/making-it-count">excellent
book “Making it Count” by Arunabh Ghosh argues</a>. </span></p><p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The first goes from the
foundation of the People's Republic in 1949 to approximately 1956. During that
period the Chinese statistical system and the overall approach to statistics
were heavily influenced by the experience of the Soviet Union. The statistics
were seen as a handmaiden of planning. The implication of that view was, as it
became clear at a very important conference in Moscow in 1954 (i.e., after
Stalin’s death but before Khrushchev’s “thaw”) that statistics is a
social science and that its use is directly related to the tasks of
industrialization and development. Its three key principles, as applied by
Chinese statisticians too, were exhaustiveness, completeness, and objectivity.
This meant that the entire phenomenon studied should be covered and documented,
and that it should be done in a non-probabilistic “objective”, almost
descriptive, way. The implication was to relegate what is today the dominant
view of philosophy of statistics into the more abstract mathematical
statistics that hardly ever dealt with social phenomena. (The politicization of
statistics in the Soviet Union became such, Ghosh writes, that several
prominent statisticians decided to move away from anything that may be
politically controversial and to apply their statistical knowledge to the study
of astronomy.)</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The
Soviet approach was soon found wanting in China. It put extremely high demands
on providers of information, generated a huge amount of paperwork so much so
that the State Statistics Bureau (SSB) was drowning in data—which
paradoxically it did not know how to summarize into useful information for
policy-makers. Thus the two contradictory phenomena appeared: on one hand
the providers of data complained of the enormous, and quasi-continuous,
cost in effort and time, while, on the other hand, SSB was unable to
fulfill its role. Ghosh shows that the problems were very severe in the
agricultural sector, composed of hundred of thousands of villages and farms
from which crucial information about yields and production was needed. The
system was less inefficient for the much smaller and more concentrated sector
of industrial enterprises.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">With
the political change in 1956 and 1957, leading to the break of close relations
with the Soviet Union, there was also a change in the approach undertaken by
Chinese statisticians. They turned much more towards India. India was then also
beginning its Second Five-Year Plan (1956-61) and it saw statistics as an
important planning tool. But rather than using the exhaustive censuses it
pursued, under the influence of its famous statistician P. S. Mahalanobis
(Professor Ma to the Chinese), the system of random surveys. Such surveys, it
was argued, were not only faster and cheaper than the alternatives, but
produced the statistics (for example, on grain or cotton yield) that were
accurate and whose mean values had a bias that could be quantified.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;"> Mahalanobis,
who was personally and politically close to Nehru, was able to stimulate an
interest in Indian statistics in Zhou Enlai and other Chinese officials during
one of their visits to India. Propelled by the politics of Sino-Indian
rapprochement in the wake of the Bandung conference, there were several years
of close relations between the Indian Statistical Institute in Calcutta and SSB
in Beijing. SSB began a cautious move away from comprehensive enumerative
approach toward the use of random sampling. </span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Despite
several practical advantages of random sampling, one should not disregard the
philosophical differences between the two approaches. Ghosh’s book brings them
out quite well. The comprehensive and exhaustive approach aims to a full and
complete understanding of social reality. Like in Borges’ short story “On
exactitude in science”, its aim is nothing less than the replication of reality
it studies. The sampling approach is more limited in its objectives, more
pragmatic and utilitarian, and holds that through randomization and
stratification it is able to comprehend the same reality much more cheaply,
quickly and in a more purposeful manner.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Before
we come to the third period, and the third approach, it is important to mention
that throughout all this time in the background was present yet a different
method, championed by Mao himself, when he studied social structure <a href="https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/mao/selected-works/volume-1/mswv1_2.htm">in
the rural areas of Hunan</a> in 1927. Mao privileged the ethnographic method
with researcher’s direct involvement. The ethnographic method is
comprehensive but is also purposeful in the sense that its objective is not
to study the peasant society for its own sake, but to find out, through
careful observation of reality, what are the differences in class interests,
and what classes are likely to support or to oppose communist policies. The
ethnographic approach advocated an unmediated contact with, and direct
knowledge of, reality that is studied. That is not a feature that the
comprehensive enumeration or sampling normally exhibit. There is a distance
between the people who supply information in factories and fields, those who
collect it, and the statisticians in the center who decide how to present it to
the public and the policy-makers.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The
statistical methods used during the first and the second period were to some
extent antithetical to Mao’s view where the producer of information should be
personally involved with the object of his study. It is true that the direct
knowledge of the reality that is being studied is helpful but Mao’s approach to
complex and large economies, and to the China that at the time had more than
700 million citizens, is simply not feasible.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The
third period begins with the anti-Rightist campaign in 1958 and the Great Leap
Forward in 1959-60. It led to the abandonment of the earlier approaches in
favor of “typical” or “purposeful” sampling, where researchers are not
interested in the integrity of the phenomenon but in some of its typical or
average features. In terms of the field with which I am familiar, distribution
of income and consumption, the typical approach does not aim to cover the
entire spectrum of incomes that are being received, i.e. the poor, the middle
class, and the rich; rather it focuses on a priori selected types of households
who are studied in detail. In other words, the interest is how various <i>typical</i>
households are faring, not how all households are doing. The typical approach
has its origin in the early Soviet family budgets surveys of the 1920s that
were concerned with the rural-urban differences and where the objective was to
look at how typical industrial household compares with the typical agricultural
household. (One can go even further back to the mid-19<sup>th</sup> century
English surveys of workers’ households.) There are two major problem with this
approach: its neglect of the entire distribution, and its a priori selection of
what typical is. Of course, the latter is driven by policy choices and, as we
shall see, it produced disastrous effects during the Great Leap Forward.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Ghosh’s
discussion of the use and misuse of statistics during the Great Leap Forward
(GLF) is especially important. While it is commonly argued that the statistical
information during the GLF collapsed as the center became disorganized and
weakened by the placing of political correctness before professional skills,
and the collection of information became decentralized with clear incentives to
present only positive, and to suppress every negative, information, Ghosh
argues that this is not a full story. Ideological change in statistics
was also to blame. Even if political incentives of the suppliers of information
to show a much more rosy picture, are left aside, the methodological choice led
to the misrepresentation of reality. During the GLF information was collected
mostly from the villages that were doing things relatively successfully or were
not affected by the worst effects of famine. Data that were then presented to
the leaders, under such extraordinary circumstances, were biased by the very
design of surveys. (Obviously, had circumstances been less dramatic, the consequence
of the use of typical surveys would be far less.)</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">Ghosh’s
book is an important contribution because the philosophy behind the statistical
research is very poorly understood and the history of how statistics has
evolved to the position that it now occupies is neither taught nor known even
among the practitioners. The contribution of the book, while it looks at China
specifically, is not only that it enables us to study the philosophy behind the
statistical work in China but to see the ideological or philosophical
underpinnings to much of statistical work in general. Another contribution of
the book, as the author mentions, is that it departs from the
simplistic US- or Soviet-centric approach and looks at the early instances of
the South-South cooperation and the role that the exchange of information,
ideas and methods between India and China played in the 1950s. The reader
is left in no doubt that had that cooperation continued, and had it did not
been derailed by the Great Leap Forward and the political incidents following
the revolt in Tibet and the exile of Dalai Lama to India, the Chinese
statistical situation would have been much better in the 1970s than it was.</span></p>
<p style="line-height: 150%;"><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 150%;">The
book ends before the Cultural Revolution which caused yet another, possibly
even greater, shock to the Chinese statistics. The number of statistical
publications by SSB during the first several years of the Cultural Revolution
fell practically to zero. That the statistical office which in the 1950s
employed, over all China, more than 200,000 people came to employ barely
several hundred, illustrates the extent of the disruption. The next
stage, which continues to this day, is only hinted at: it begins in the
early 1970s with some improvements in the collection of data, and finally with
1981 when the first issue of the Chinese statistical yearbook was published.</span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: 150%;"> </p>
<p></p>Branko Milanovichttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11606686082041972166noreply@blogger.com0